[nws-changes] 20120417: tropical cyclone Inundation Guidance Products comments

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: [nws-changes] 20120417: tropical cyclone Inundation Guidance Products comments
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2012 06:49:56 -0600

NOUS41 KWBC171226

PNSWSH

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service HeadquartersWashington  DC

830 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2012

To:        Subscribers:

          -Family of Services

          -NOAA Weather Wire Service

          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

         -NOAAPORT

          Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees

From:      DavidSoroka

Subject: Soliciting comments for Experimental Probabilistic

          Tropical Cyclone Inundation Guidance Products through

          November 30, 2012

As part of a long term effort to improve communications on storm
surge and to reduce confusion among users with the various tidal
and geodetic verticaldatums, the NWS is providing storm surge
information and guidance in terms of feet above ground level,
i.e., inundation.

Effective June 1, 2012, and continuing through November 30, 2012,
NWS is seeking user feedback on Experimental Probabilistic
Tropical Cyclone Inundation Guidance Products.

The Experimental Tropical Cyclone Inundation Guidance products
consist of two suites of probabilities for the Gulf of Mexico
and Atlantic coastal areas:

1. Probabilities, in percent, of inundation exceeding 0 through

     20 feet above ground level, at 1 footintervals(e.g., the

    probabilities in percent, of inundation exceeding 0 feet,

   1 feet, 2 feet, ... 20 feet).

2. Probabilities of inundation heights (above ground level) being

    exceeded.   The suite of products range from 10 to 50 percent,

   at  10 percent intervals.

Each of the probabilities mentioned above will be provided out

to 78 hours as a cumulative probability, defined as the overall

probability the event will occur at each grid cell from the start

of the run until some specified time (e.g., 0-6 hours, 0-12,
0-18, etc.) and as an incremental probability, defined as the

probability the event will occur sometime during the specified

forecast period(e.g., 0-6 hours, 6-12, 12-18, etc.,) at each

grid cell.

The current series of probabilistic inundation products do not
account for tide, waves, and fresh water, i.e., precipitation
runoff and river inflow. The products are based upon an ensemble
of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model
runs using the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory
and accounts for track, size, and intensity errors based on
historical errors.

NWS is also developing a next generation of probabilistic tropical
cyclone inundation guidance products, which will incorporate tide.
A Technical Information Notice will be sent before the commencement
of these products.

The probabilistic inundation products will only be generated when
hurricane watches and/or warnings are in effect for the Atlantic
and Gulf Coasts of the continental United States. When produced,
graphical versions of the products will be posted online at:

       http://www.weather.gov/mdl/phish

ESRI shape files, KMZ and GRIB2 formats will also be available
for download from the above website.

Users are encouraged to provide feedback on these experimental
products by using the brief survey form available on line at:

       http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=phss

Planning is underway to provide theProbabilistic Tropical Cyclone
Inundation Guidance Products in GRIB2 format via the NWS

If you have questions regarding this notice, please contact:

       John Kuhn

       National Weather Service

       Marine and Coastal Services Branch

       Silver Spring Maryland 20910

       301-713-1677 X121

       John.F.Kuhn@xxxxxxxx  <mailto:John.F.Kuhn@xxxxxxxx>

National Public Information Statements are online at:

http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

$$