[nws-changes] 20120423: Oceanographic fcst modeling sys temFwd: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: [nws-changes] 20120423: Oceanographic fcst modeling sys temFwd: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2012 12:41:36 -0600

-------- Original Message --------

918
NOUS41 KWBC 231838
PNSWSH

Technical Implementation Notice 12-23
NOAAs National Ocean Service Headquarters Washington DC
Relayed by National Weather Service Washington DC
238 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2012

To:       Subscribers:
          -Family of Services
          -NOAA Weather Wire Service
          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
          -NOAAPORT
          Other NWS and NOS partners and Employees

From:     Peter Stone
          Chief, Oceanographic Division
          NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and
          Services (CO-OPS)

Subject:  Implementation of National Ocean Services new
          Oceanographic Forecast Modeling System for the Columbia
          River and Estuary, Effective July 10, 2012

Effective July 10, 2012, beginning at 1500 Coordinated Universal
Time (UTC), 1000 AM EDT, the NOAA/National Ocean Service Columbia
River and Estuary Operational Forecast System (CREOFS) will be
implemented on NOAAs Central Computer System (CCS) operated by
NCEP Central Operations (NCO).

CREOFS will now provide users with nowcasts (analyses of near
present) and forecast guidance of the three-dimensional physical
conditions of the Columbia River and Estuary, including surface
water levels and 3-D water currents, water temperature, and
salinity out to 48 hours.

CREOFS uses the Semi-Implicit Eulerian-Lagrangian Finite Element
(SELFE) model, developed at the Oregon Health&  Science
University (OHSU), as its core ocean prediction model. SELFE is
an open-source, community-supported, finite-element model for
river-to-ocean modeling, with an unstructured grid in the
horizontal dimension, hybrid SZ coordinates in the vertical
dimension (with Z layers being optional), and flexibility in
representing the bathymetry and vertical structure of the water
column.

The CREOFS grid consists of 74,061 nodes and 142,684 elements and
includes the upper and lower Columbia River and estuary. Grid
resolution ranges from 39 km on the open ocean boundary to
approximately 100m near the coast, indicating the flexibility of
the grid size based on bathymetry from the deep ocean to the
coast. Additionally, the higher resolution along the navigational
channels within bays, from approximately 100m to 10m, provides
detailed current features.

CREOFS operates within the NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework
(COMF) and has four daily nowcast and forecast cycles at 0, 6,
12, and 18 UTC.

For the CREOFS nowcast cycle, the meteorological forcing is
provided by the nested, high resolution (4 km) NCEP North
American Mesoscale (NAM) weather prediction model. River
discharge is estimated using near-real-time observations from
U.S. Geological Survey river gauges. Oceanographic conditions of
subtidal water levels, water temperature and salinity on CREOFS
lateral open boundary on the shelf are estimated based on
forecast guidance from the Navy Coast Ocean Model (NCOM) and
adjusted by real-time observations at NOS water level gauges.
Tides are derived from a regional tidal model of the northeast
Pacific Ocean developed by Dr. Mike Foreman. Subtidal water level
forecasts from NWS Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) Model are
used as a backup if NCOM is not available.

For the CREOFS forecast cycle, the meteorological forcing is
provided by the nested, high resolution (4km) NAM weather
prediction model. River discharge is estimated by persistence of
the most recent near-real-time observations from U.S. Geological
Survey river gauges. Oceanographic conditions of subtidal water
levels, water temperature and salinity on CREOFS' lateral open
boundary on the shelf are estimated based on forecast guidance
from NCOM. Tides are derived from Dr. Mike Foreman's northeast
Pacific Ocean tidal model. Subtidal water level forecasts from
NWS Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) Model are used as a backup
if NCOM is not available.

Gridded and point forecast guidance from CREOFS will be available
in netCDF files on the NCEP server at NOAAs Web Operations
Centers (WOC)

ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov

in the directory

/pub/data/nccfs/com/nos/prod/creofs.yyyymmdd

at NOS/CO-OPS OPeNDAP server

http://opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/netcdf/

and at CO-OPS THREDDS server

http://opendap.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/thredds/catalog.html

CREOFS output is displayed on the CO-OPS web page
at http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov

Additional information about CREOFS can be found at

http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html

CREOFS predictions are used by commercial and recreational
mariners and fishermen, emergency managers, search and rescue
operations, and NWS marine weather forecasters. The development
and implementation of CREOFS was a joint project of the
NOS/Office of Coast Survey (OCS), the NOS/Center for Operational
Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), NWS/NCEP/NCO and
the Oregon Health&  Science University. CREOFS is monitored 24/7
by both NCO/NCEP and CO-OPS Continuous Real-Time Monitoring
System (CORMS) personnel.

Fory questions concerning these changes, please contact:

Dr. Aijun Zhang
NOS/CO-OPS
Silver Spring, MD
Email: Aijun.Zhang@xxxxxxxx
 or
Dr. Frank Aikman
Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
Coast Survey Development Laboratory
NOAA/NOS/Office of Coast Survey
Silver Spring, MD
Email: Frank.Aikman@xxxxxxxx

For questions regarding the dataflow aspects with respect to the
NCEP server at the WOC, please contact:

Rebecca Cosgrove
NCEP/NCO Dataflow Team
Camp Springs, MD
Email: ncep.list.pmb-dataflow@xxxxxxxx

For questions on how to access CREOFS digital products from
CO-OPS servers please contact:

Todd Ehret
NOS/CO-OPS/User Services Team
Silver Spring, MD
Email: tide.prediction@xxxxxxxx

NWS National Technical Implementation Notices are online at:

   http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notif.htm

$$