[no subject]

• To: g.carter(rec), r.livingston(rec), d.smith.dan(rec),
• Date: Mon, 24 Aug 1992 16:52:29 -0600
• Posted: Fri, Aug 21, 1992 3:19 PM EDT Msg: JGJC-5352-7022 k.mielke(rec), s.price.prh(rec), j.kemper(rec)
• Subj: CAC drought outlook

We sent the following message out on AFOS, NWWS, Domestic Data Service, 
International Data Service, Honolulu, WMSC (FAA), Montreal AES, and ISPAN.

WSHPNSNMC
NOFS10 KWBC DDHHMM

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER/NMC
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 1992


            NORTH AMERICAN CLIMATE ADVISORY 92/1 
             CURRENT GROWING SEASON ASSESSMENT  

                       AUGUST 17, 1992

                      EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SINCE LATE 1991, BOTH LONG AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS, ALONG WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES, HAVE
PRODUCED ADVERSE CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.  THIS HAS FURTHER EXACERBATED THE
SITUATION IN SOME AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED UP TO SEVEN
YEARS OF INADEQUATE WINTER PRECIPITATION.  AS A  RESULT, MANY
RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS ARE AT, OR ARE APPROACHING, CRITICALLY
LOW LEVELS.

FOR  EXAMPLE, IN CALIFORNIA, ONE OF THE STATES MOST IMPACTED,
LOCALLY HEAVY MID-FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH PRECIPITATION EASED
THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST.  FOR THE STATE AS A WHOLE, THE RAINY SEASON
ATTAINED 87% OF NORMAL, BUT THE PERCENTAGES WERE MUCH LOWER IN
THE STATE'S MAJOR WATER SUPPLY AREAS IN THE NORTH.  AT THE
TIME OF THIS SUMMARY, CALIFORNIA RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS 1.3
MILLION ACRE-FEET LESS THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO.  ELSEWHERE,
RESERVOIRS IN  EASTERN OREGON, SOUTHERN IDAHO, AND NORTHERN 
NEVADA ARE SEVERELY DEPLETED, AND MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS
HAVE GONE INTO EFFECT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

THE ABOVE CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED THE FIRE SEASON IN THE WEST
TO RAPIDLY COMMENCE.  THE PREDICTED FIRE SEVERITY HAS RISEN TO
DANGEROUSLY HIGH LEVELS FROM THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. 
LAST YEAR, THE POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER WAS AT SIMILARLY HIGH
LEVELS, BUT LOW SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES
KEPT THE NUMBER OF FIRES AND ACRES BURNT WELL BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.  SO FAR IN 1992, HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN AS FAVORABLE.  THIS YEAR'S WORST
WILDFIRE OUTBREAK, MOSTLY CAUSED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES, HAS
SCORCHED OVER 310,000 ACRES SINCE JULY 31 IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN.  FORTUNATELY, THE WEATHER BRIEFLY
IMPROVED DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST, ALLOWING
FIREFIGHTERS TO CONTAIN NEARLY ALL OF THE FIRES.  THE
FORECAST, HOWEVER, EXPECTS THE RECENT HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST DURING MID-AUGUST.

ELSEWHERE, LATE SPRING DRYNESS IN THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC
RAISED FEARS OF DROUGHT-INDUCED CROP FAILURE.  FORTUNATELY,
COOL JUNE WEATHER KEPT EVAPORATIVE DEMANDS LOW, AND ABUNDANT
JULY RAINS ELIMINATED MUCH OF THE DRYNESS.  SIMILAR CONCERNS
AFFECTED THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA, BUT THESE
WERE QUELLED BY AMPLE JUNE AND JULY RAINFALL.  THE  MAIN
CONCERN IN MANITOBA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND MIDWESTERN
U.S. IS THE PERSISTENTLY COOL WEATHER SINCE JUNE WHICH HAS
DELAYED PLANT DEVELOPMENT AND HAS LEFT CROPS VULNERABLE TO
FROST DAMAGE BEFORE MATURITY AND HARVEST.

THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK (AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER) INDICATES ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND SUBNORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE,
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
THE NORTHEAST.  ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SUBNORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY DURING AUGUST.  ABOVE
NORMAL STREAMFLOWS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND MOST OF ARIZONA, AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS IS A SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS, IMPACTS, AND OUTLOOKS
ISSUED BY THE NMC CLIMATE ANALYSIS CENTER WITH INPUT FROM
NUMEROUS FEDERAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE AGENCIES.  A SUPPLEMENT
TO THIS ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE.  GRAPHICS MAY BE AVAILABLE WITH FUTURE
ADVISORIES. 

END - SENT W/OM23