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Posted: Fri, Oct 8, 1993 5:40 PM EDT Msg: LGJD-5931-4970
Subj: 2 NTIMs I sent this aftn
WSHPNSNMC
NOUS41 KWBC DDHHMM
NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION MESSAGE 93-39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
215 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 1993
TO: USERS OF FOUS23 - 27 KWBC MESSAGES AND FOUS32 KWBC
(OFFUTT AFB, CARSWELL AFB, ISPAN)
FROM: MARY M. GLACKIN
CHIEF, SERVICES DEVELOPMENT BRANCH
SUBJECT: DISCONTINUATION OF FOUS23 - 27 KWBC AND FOUS32 KWBC
MESSAGES
(INFORMATION FOR THIS ANNOUNCEMENT HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY
PAUL DALLAVALLE OF THE TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY)
Effective on or about the 1200 UTC cycle on October 13, 1993, the
National Weather Service will remove the LFM-based MOS forecast
messages available for Navy stations in the contiguous United
States. These LFM-based MOS forecast messages are issued as
FOUS23 KWBC, FOUS24 KWBC, FOUS25 KWBC, FOUS26 KWBC, and
FOUS27 KWBC bulletins and are only available on military
communications circuits and the ISPAN lines directed to Boulder,
Colorado; Norman, Oklahoma; and Silver Spring, Maryland.
Elimination of these messages is part of the NWS effort to remove
all LFM-based guidance. At the same time, the FOUS32 KWBC which
contains MRF-based MOS probability of precipitation guidance for
medium-range projections for Navy stations will also be
eliminated.
NOTE TO AFOS USERS: These products are not transmitted on AFOS,
so AFOS users are unaffected by this change.
Questions about these products may be directed to Chris Alex of
the Office of Meteorology at 301-713-0462 or to Paul Dallavalle
of the Techniques Development Laboratory at 301-763-8151.
END
SENT - W/OM23
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WSHPNSNMC
NOUS41 KWBC DDHHMM
NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION MESSAGE 93-40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
220 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 1993
TO: ALL NWS OFFICES, DOMESTIC DATA SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS,
CARSWELL AFB, OFFUTT AFB
FROM: MARY M. GLACKIN
CHIEF, SERVICES DEVELOPMENT BRANCH
SUBJECT: IMPLEMENTATION OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SNOW
FORECASTS IN THE MRF-BASED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS
(THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY JOHN JENSENIUS OF THE
TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY.)
Beginning on or about October 14, 1993, forecasts of the
conditional probability of snow (CPOS) for the 0000-1200 and
1200-0000 UTC periods will be added to the MRF-based statistical
forecast messages. These messages are distributed on AFOS
under the FMR category and disseminated to external users as the
FOXCxx, FOXExx, FOXSxx, FOXWxx, and FOUS20 messages, where xx is
a two digit number identifying each message. The conditional
probability of snow forecasts will be on a line labelled CPOS.
This new line will be added in the meassage below the line
labeled "POP12".
The CPOS forecasts are conditional on the occurrence of a
"significant precipitation event" during the 12-h period.
In the development of the forecast equations, only significant
precipitation events were considered. For those events, the
predictand was set to 1 if only snow occurred, 0 if only rain
occurred, and a value between 0 and 1 if freezing precipitation,
ice pellets, or a mixture of precipitation types occurred during
the 12-h period. The exact value assigned for these mixed events
depended on the relative percentage of time that each
precipitation type occurred during the 12-h period. Note that
the probabilities produced by the forecast equations will reflect
the predictand definition. In the message, a missing forecast
will be indicated by a "999". Also, the climatic normal
conditional probabilities of snow valid 96-108 and 108-120 hours
after 0000 UTC will be included at the end of the CPOS line under
the column heading of "CLIMO".
NOTE: The addition of this line to the MRF-based MOS messages
completes the implementation of this product. In other words,
all of the forecast elements are now available in the MRF-based
MOS messages.
Technical Procedures Bulletin No. 411 describes the MRF-based
statistical guidance message and contains a description of the
conditional probability of snow guidance. If you do not have a
copy of this bulletin and would like a copy, please contact
Chris Alex of the Office of Meteorology at (301)-713-0462. If
you need further information about conditional probability of
snow guidance or about the medium-range statistical forecast
messages, please call John Jensenius of the Techniques
Development Laboratory at (301)-763-8151.
END
SENT - W/OM23
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I also sent the following message this aftn:
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
WSHPNSWSH
ADMN81 KWBC DDHHMM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
215 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 1993
Natural Disaster Awareness Day -- October 13, 1993
Each year, the International Day for Natural Disaster Reduction
(IDNDR) Secretariat establishes a theme for the IDNDR in order to
give direction and unity to disaster preparedness activities
worldwide.
This year, Natural Disaster Awareness Day will take place on
October 13, and activities will focus on promoting disaster
preparedness at schools and hospitals. Here in the United
States, there are a number of activities to look for, from local
projects in classrooms to a nationally broadcast public
television program. More than 2,000 teachers are participating
in the second year of an effort to reach out to school age
children with a message about family preparedness.
They are working together with local representatives from the
American Red Cross, the U.S. Geological Survey, the National
Weather Service, and the local emergency managers to present
programs that teach children about hazardous events that may
occur in their area, and what steps can be taken by students,
their families, and their community to mitigate the effects of
these events.
In conjunction with this program, "USA TODAY" will be featuring
Natural Disaster Awareness Day in its daily "Classline TODAY"
publication. "Classline TODAY" offers teachers suggestions on
how to bring current affairs and issues in the newspaper into the
classroom. Disaster-related points will be presented in various
columns during September and early October, and Natural Disaster
Awareness Day itself will be featured on October 13. The
syndicated children's newspaper feature, "The Mini Page",
will also be featuring the Decade in regular columns throughout
the year. "The Mini Page", which appears in the weekend color
comics section of many newspapers (circulation 15,000,000),
presents information in a simple graphic format aimed at young
children.
Focusing on one hazard in each issue, "The Mini Page" publishers
will cover such phenomena as tornadoes, landslides, hurricanes,
winter storms, tsunamis, and earthquakes. Hints about how to
prepare for an event in the child's own community, as well as how
to prepare for disasters in general, will be included.
The Broadcast Meteorological Community will also be discussing
the Decade and Disaster Awareness Day activities on the local
stations, thanks to a joint effort of the IDNDR and the American
Meteorological Society.
On Disaster Awareness Day, October 13, cable television's The
Weather Channel will be featuring hazard-related specials,
information, discussions, and tips during the entire day. A
video entitled "Disaster Dudes" produced by the Family Protection
Program of the Federal Emergency Management Agency will be
available both through The Weather Channel and via satellite link
to the schools. This 15-minute feature uses children to
illustrate three important messages about preparing for natural
hazards:
o Learn about hazards that may affect where you live and make
a disaster plan.
o Practice the disaster plan just as you practice fire safety
plans.
o Put together a disaster supplies kit.
Written materials and a teaching aid will accompany the video.
The "Disaster Dudes" videotape is scheduled to be shown three
times on The Weather Channel--10:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. on October 13
and 1 am on October 14.
SENT - W/OM23
END
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