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NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION MESSAGE 94-23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 1994
TO: ALL NWS PRODUCT USERS
FROM: MARY C. NEWTON
ACTING CHIEF, SERVICES DEVELOPMENT BRANCH
SUBJECT: AVN-BASED STATISTICAL FORECASTS
(THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY MR. JOHN JENSENIUS OF
THE TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY).
Beginning on or about August 31, 1994, during the 1200 UTC cycle,
112 new alphanumeric messages containing AVN-based statistical
weather forecasts for approximately 225 stations in the
contiguous U.S. and approximately 30 stations in Alaska will be
generated. This new guidance will be based on output from the
National Meteorological Center's Aviation (AVN) run of the Global
Spectral Model. Forecast messages will be generated from the
0000 and 1200 UTC runs of the AVN model and should be available
at about 0600 and 1800 UTC, respectively. These messages will be
distributed on AFOS under the FAN category and disseminated to
external users as the FEXCxx, FEXExx, FEXSxx, FEXWxx, and FEAK20
messages, where xx is a two digit number identifying each
message. Note that there are currently no plans to distribute
the FEAK20 message, which contains the guidance for Alaskan
stations, on AFOS.
The new messages will contain objective forecasts of daytime
maximum (max) and nighttime minimum (min) temperature,
probability of precipitation (PoP), mean opaque cloudiness, and
conditional probability of snow (CPoS) for 12-h periods ranging
from 12 to 72 hours in advance. Since the conditional
probability of snow foreacsts are issued only between September
16 and May 15 for the contiguous U.S. and between September 1 and
May 31 for Alaska, the CPoS line will not appear in the messages
on August 31.
A Technical Procedures Bulletin (TPB) and a "blue card"
describing these new messages are being prepared and will be
distributed shortly. In general, however, the format of these
new messages will be similar to that of the MRF-based statistical
messages (NWS TPB 411). If you do not have a copy of TPB No. 411
and would like a copy, please contact Chris Alex of the Office of
Meteorology at (301)-713-0462.
If you need further information about the AVN-based statistical
forecasts or forecast messages, please call John Jensenius of the
Techniques Development Laboratory at (301)-763-8151.
END
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NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION MESSAGE 94-24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 1994
TO: ALL NWS PRODUCT USERS
FROM: MARY C. NEWTON
ACTING CHIEF, SERVICES DEVELOPMENT BRANCH
SUBJECT: CANADIAN AVN-BASED STATISTICAL FORECASTS
(THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WAS PROVIDED BY MR. JOHN JENSENIUS OF
THE TECHNIQUES DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY).
Beginning on or about August 31, 1994, during the 1200 UTC cycle,
a new message containing AVN-based statistical maximum (max) and
minimum (min) temperature forecasts for 12 Canadian stations will
be issued. The message will be generated during both the
0000 and 1200 UTC forecast cycles and should be available at
about 0600 and 1800 UTC, respectively. This message will be
distributed on AFOS under the FANCND product identifier and will
be disseminated to external users as the FECN20 message.
The FECN20 (FANCND) message will contain statistical forecasts of
the daytime max and nighttime min temperature for projections out
to 72 hours in advance and is based on the U.S. National
Meteorological Center's AVN run of the Global Spectral Model.
Forecasts for the following stations will be contained in the
message:
WLF - Lansdowne House, OT
YEG - Edmonton, AB
YPA - Prince Albert, SK
YQB - Quebec, QE
YQD - The Pas, MB
YQR - Regina, SK
YQT - Thunder Bay, OT
YVR - Vancouver,
BCYWG - Winnipeg, MB
YXS - Prince George, BC
YYB - North Bay, OT
YYC - Calgary, AB
The techniques used to derive the max and min temperature
guidance for these Canadian stations are the same as those used
to derive the max and min temperature guidance for U.S. stations.
A Technical Procedures Bulletin (TPB) describing the AVN-based
statistical forecast messages for the U.S. will be issued
shortly. In general, the techniques used to generate the AVN-
based forecasts are similar to those used to generate the MRF-
based statistical forecasts (TPB No. 411 gives a description of
the MRF-based statistical guidance for the U.S.). If you do not
have a copy of TPB No. 411 and would like a copy, please contact
Chris Alex of the Office of Meteorology at (301)-713-0462.
If you need further information about the max/min temperature
guidance or about the message for Canadian stations, please call
John Jensenius of the Techniques Development Laboratory at
(301)-763-8151.
END
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