NOTE: The nws-changes mailing list is no longer active. The list archives are made available for historical reasons.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EDT TUE DEC 20 1994
TO: ALL NWS OFFICES AND NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: BARRY REICHENBAUGH, OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: INFORMATION FOR INQUIRIES ON THE NEW CLIMATE OUTLOOKS
Part 1 OF A 7-PART MESSAGE
...OVERVIEW...
National Weather Service scientists for many years have been
developing new approaches making outlooks for rainfall and temperature
levels far into the future. Advances in long-range outlook techniques
over the last several years have finally made it possible to make
useable climate predictions beyond the current 90-day limit.
Recognizing that many segments of the economy could benefit from
better information about the climate affecting the United States,
scientists at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have developed a
series of 90-day outlooks offering a look up to 1 year in the future.
Currently, CPC (part of the recently renamed National Centers for
Environmental Prediction or NCEP) produces several products, including
6-10 day outlooks and the Monthly and Seasonal (90-day) Outlook.
The new series of long-lead outlooks will contain valuable information
for people who must account for future weather conditions for planning
and purchasing decisions. Variations in weather can have substantial
effects on transportation, agriculture and the power industry.
Private sector meteorologists will realize opportunities to add value
to the long-lead outlook products and will serve as interpreters for a
wide variety of potential users who may not have the expertise to use
the long-lead outlook products on their own.
...THE PRODUCT...
The long-lead outlook uses the global distribution of sea surface
temperature as an important predictor. The outlook contains maps
and/or tables describing the seasonal temperatures and precipitation
predictions for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii, for
out to 12.5 months. It also contains predictions for tropical Pacific
sea surface temperatures out to one year.
...DISSEMINATION...
The Seasonal Outlook used to be made just before the end of the month,
so the "lead time" was only one or two days. Lead time is defined as
the time between outlook release and the first day of its valid
period. For example, the outlook for Dec. 1 through Feb. 28, 1995,
became available on Nov. 29, 1994. For users who received the product
by mail, monthly and seasonal products had zero lead.
The seasonal outlook for January-February-March 1995 was released on
Dec. 15 with a lead time of half a month. This was the first time
that a seasonal outlook became available to users electronically.
On Jan. 17, 1995, the Climate Prediction Center begins producing each
month (at mid month) a suite of 13 seasonal outlooks, going out into
the future in overlapping fashion in one-month steps. For instance,
in mid-January 1995, outlooks for February-March-April 1995, March-
April-May 1995, etc., out to February-March-April 1996, will be
produced for a total of 13 outlooks in all. An updated outlook for a
targeted season will appear each month, reducing the lead time for
that target season from a maximum lead time of 12.5 months until it
reaches just two weeks before the season occurs (see schedule below).
A Monthly Outlook will be issued once a month at mid month.
Distribution of the seasonal outlooks was discontinued from the
printed "Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook." The new "Climate
Outlook will be offered as an electronic publication. The product
will grow in volume from a maximum of 12 printed pages to a relatively
unlimited size because the move to an electronic publication removes
many constraints imposed by printing limitations.
The new Climate Outlook will appear on the Internet through CPC's Home
Page on internet (http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov) and its File Transfer
Protocol, over NWS media (Automation of Field Operations and Services
(AFOS) and Family of Services), and the Digital Facsimile Service
(DIFAX). DIFAX transmission will take four consecutive days.
The following is the schedule of issuances for 1995. Valid times for
seasonal outlooks are indicated by 3-letter abbreviations (e.g. JFM
January-February-March; AMJ = April-May-June; etc.). Issue time is
around 3 p.m. eastern time.
Issuance Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec
Dates 17 16 16 13 18 15 13 17 14 19 16 14
. . . . . . . . . . . .
Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . .
(lead time). . . . . . . . . . . .
(0.5 mo.) Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan
(0.5 mo.) FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM
(1.5 mo.) MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA
(2.5 mo.) AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM
(3.5 mo.) MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ
(4.5 mo.) JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ
(5.5 mo.) JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA
(6.5 mo.) ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS
(7.5 mo.) SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO
(8.5 mo.) OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON
(9.5 mo.) NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND
(10.5 mo.) DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
(11.5 mo.) JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF
(12.5 mo.) FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM
The plain language narratives have been discontinued for the Monthly
Outlook (NWWS ID: NMC30NNA; FOS ID: FPUS6 KWBC) and Seasonal Outlook
(NWWS ID: NMC90NUS; FOS ID: FEUS9 KWBC). However, the prognostic
discussions will continue for the monthly outlook (PMD30D; FOS ID:
FXUS07 KWBC) and seasonal outlooks (PMD90D, FOS ID: FXUS05 KWBC).
END OF PART 1 of 7
ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE...PART 2 OF 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EST THU DEC 15 1994
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) OFFICES AND EMPLOYEES
FROM: BARRY REICHENBAUGH, OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: CHANGES TO MONTHLY AND SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROGRAM:
...THIS IS PART 2 OF A 7-PART MESSAGE
...OUTLOOK DEFINITION...
The Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks will depict the likelihood,
through probabilities, that the average temperature and total
precipitation for the Outlook's valid period will be above, below, or
near normal (median for precipitation). Climatologically, these three
classes have been defined so that each occur one-third of the time
over the long run. Areas will be indicated where one of the three
classes is more likely for the Outlook's valid period. Areas where a
favored class cannot be determined will be indicated by a "CL." CL
means equal chances for each of the three climatological classes for
the Outlook's valid period, which would be the only logical outlook.
The following are 4 outlook examples with class probabilities for
each case. The favored class (if any) has the highest probability.
............CLASS...........
OUTLOOK NEAR NORMAL/ CLASS
EXAMPLE BELOW NEAR MEDIAN ABOVE FAVORED
1. Class probabilities 43.3% 33.3% 23.3% Below
(anomalies) +10% 0% -10%
2. Class probabilities 23.3% 33.3% 43.3% Above
(anomalies) -10% 0% +10%
3. Class probabilities 28.3% 43.3% 28.3% Near Normal/
(anomalies) -5% 10% -5% Near Median
4. Class probabilities 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% None
(anomalies) 0% 0% 0% ("CL")
Outlook maps for the Conterminous U.S. and Alaska will depict positive
anomaly contours showing areas having a favored outlook class. A
Bulletin of alphanumeric outlook tables will be issued for Hawaii
(NMCPMDHCO; FOS ID: FXHW40 KWBC).
Since Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks pertain to the average temperature
and total precipitation for the entire valid period and not to the
variability within it, they will NOT help people planning events for
specific dates or sub-periods. The Outlooks will be of most use for
economic and business planning, particularly when used with climate
reference material to help meet a specific user's need. General
climate reference material will be provided by CPC. More detailed
climate information (e.g. heating and cooling degree day information)
is available through the Regional Climate Centers (RCC).
In addition to the outlooks, a Tropical Pacific Mean Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) Outlook out to a year will be issued.
Here are some key ideas which all experts should try to work into
their answers to media questions:
ECONOMIC BENEFITS: The economic benefits are many and varied. Power
companies, farmers, water resource managers and commodity investors
are among many end-users who may benefit from the new outlooks.
MODERNIZATION: These new long-lead outlooks are a by-product of the
current Modernization of the National Weather Service. Advances in
technology are leading to more efficient use of computers and less
human labor to produce new and improved products. For example, new
satellites are providing forecasters with better sea-surface
temperature readings; more powerful supercomputers make it possible to
run more complex climatological models based on the sea-surface
temperatures and other variables.
INTERPRETATION REQUIRED: The new products will not be readily useable
by the public because of their complexity. This offers an opportunity
to private consultants to create value-added products for end-users.
MORE INFORMATION, WIDER DISTRIBUTION: Since the new products are
distributed in electronic form, more useable information will be
available to the private sector, and through electronic information
services distribution, they will reach a new, wider audience.
NOT DAY-TO-DAY SPECIFIC: The long-lead climate outlooks are not time
and place specific like the shorter range forecasts: the long-lead
climate outlooks will not help people planning events for specific
dates; rather they are meant for use by public and private users as a
guide for decision-making. Thus, outlooks are NOT forecasts.
Questions on public/private sector roles should be directed to:
Ed Gross or Allan Eustis/ National Weather Service
Industrial Meteorology Staff (W/IM),
1325 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910:
telephone 301-713-0258
Technical questions should go the RCCs or CPC. Their addresses are
given in part 7.
END OF PART 2 OF 7
THE REMAINING PARTS WILL BE SENT OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
nws-changes archives: