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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...PART 1 OF 2...REVISED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
830 AM EST TUE JAN 10 1995
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) EMPLOYEES, FAMILY OF SERVICES
(FOS) SUBSCRIBERS, NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE (NWWS)
SUBSCRIBERS, OTHER NWS PRODUCT USERS
FROM: DONALD R. WERNLY, CHIEF, WARNING AND FORECAST BRANCH, OFFICE
OF METEOROLOGY
SUBJECT: CHANGES TO MONTHLY AND SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROGRAM:
PART 1: DESCRIPTION OF ENHANCED CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROGRAM
...THIS IS PART 1 OF A 2-PART MESSAGE, REVISED FROM DEC. 15, WITH
REVISED INFORMATION REGARDING DIGITAL FACIMILE (DIFAX) DISSEMINATION.
ALL OUTLOOKS WILL BE DISSEMINATED ON DIFAX THE SAME DAY...
...ALSO, A GREATER EMPHASIS IS MADE IN THIS STATEMENT ON THE VERY
IMPORTANT DISTINCTION BETWEEN AN OUTLOOK FAVORING THE NEAR NORMAL (OR
MEDIAN) CLASS AND AN OUTLOOK THAT ONLY SUGGESTS USING CLIMATOLOGY...
Dramatic changes will be made to the Monthly (30-Day) and
Seasonal (90-Day) Mean Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Program
beginning January 17, 1995. One major change will be the issuance of
an Outlook well ahead of the Outlook's valid time, instead of just a
few days ahead of time as was done previously. This lead time, the
time between issuance of the Outlook and the first day of its valid
period, will be about 2 weeks for Monthly Outlooks and vary from 2
weeks to 12.5 months for 13 simultaneously issued Seasonal Outlooks.
The other major change will be the increased number of Seasonal
Outlooks (to thirteen) issued simultaneously EACH month, near mid-
month.
The Monthly Outlook (for all 50 states) will be issued just once
per month (around mid month) with a lead time of about 2 weeks. Issue
time will be around 3 p.m. eastern time. Thirteen (13) Seasonal
Outlooks will be issued simultaneously EACH month for all 50 states at
about mid month (around 3 p.m. eastern time). The Seasonal Outlooks
will overlap in steps of one month with lead times of 2 weeks to 12.5
months. Thus, on January 17, 1995, Seasonal Outlooks will be made for
February through April, March through May, April through June, and so
on to February 1996 through April 1996.
The Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks will depict the likelihood,
through probabilities, that the average temperature and total
precipitation for the Outlook's valid period will be above, below, or
near normal (median for precipitation). Climatologically, these three
classes have been defined so that each occur one-third of the time.
Areas will be indicated where one of the three classes is more likely
for the Outlook's valid period. Areas where a favored class cannot be
determined will be indicated by a "CL." CL means equal chances for
each of the three climatological classes for the Outlook's valid
period, which would be the only logical outlook.
IMPORTANT NOTE: An outlook favoring a near normal (or median)
class implies a lesser probability of the above and below normal (or
median) classes. CL means equal chances for the three classes. This
is a very important distinction for users, and will be clearly
indicated in the outlooks.
The following are 4 outlook examples with class probabilities for
each case. The favored class (if any) has the highest probability.
............CLASS...........
OUTLOOK NEAR NORMAL/ CLASS
EXAMPLE BELOW NEAR MEDIAN ABOVE FAVORED
1. Class probabilities 43.3% 33.3% 23.3% Below
(anomalies) +10% 0% -10%
2. Class probabilities 23.3% 33.3% 43.3% Above
(anomalies) -10% 0% +10%
3. Class probabilities 28.3% 43.3% 28.3% Near Normal/
(anomalies) -5% 10% -5% Near Median
4. Class probabilities 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% None
(anomalies) 0% 0% 0% ("CL")
Outlook maps for the Conterminous U.S. and Alaska will depict
positive anomaly contours showing areas having a favored outlook
class. A Bulletin of alphanumeric outlook tables will be issued for
Hawaii (NMCPMDHCO; FOS ID: FXHW40 KWBC).
Since Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks pertain to the average
temperature and total precipitation for the entire valid period and
not to the variability within it, they will NOT help people planning
events for specific dates or sub-periods. The Outlooks will be of
most use for economic and business planning, particularly when used
with climate reference material to help meet a specific user's need.
General climate reference material will be provided by CAC. More
detailed climate information (e.g. heating and cooling degree day
information) is available through the Regional Climate Centers (RCC).
The six RCCs have hosted workshops this autumn to provide information
on how private industry can benefit by adding value to the outlooks by
referring to climate information.
In addition to the outlooks, a Tropical Pacific Mean Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) Outlook out to a year will be issued. CAC's new
outlook techniques rely mainly on the slowly varying global SST field
and DO have useable accuracy at long lead. The new Climate Outlooks
make tangible the results of many research programs over several
decades on the subjects of El Nino, ocean-atmosphere interaction, etc.
Part 2 has the CAC and RCC addresses for technical inquiries.
Questions on public/private sector roles should be directed to:
Ed Gross or Allan Eustis/ National Weather Service
Industrial Meteorology Staff (W/IM), 1325 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910: telephone 301-713-0258
END OF PART 1 OF 2
NNNN
ZCZC WSHPNSWSH
TTAA00 KWSH DDHHMM AMD
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...PART 2 OF 2...REVISION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
835 AM EST TUE JAN 10 1995
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) EMPLOYEES, FAMILY OF SERVICES
(FOS) SUBSCRIBERS, NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE (NWWS)
SUBSCRIBERS, OTHER NWS PRODUCT USERS
FROM: DONALD R. WERNLY, CHIEF, WARNING AND FORECAST BRANCH, OFFICE
OF METEOROLOGY
SUBJECT: CHANGES TO MONTHLY AND SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROGRAM
PART 2: DISSEMINATION OF OUTLOOKS
...THIS IS PART 2 OF A 2-PART MESSAGE, REVISED FROM DEC. 15, WITH
REVISED INFORMATION REGARDING DIGITAL FACIMILE (DIFAX) DISSEMINATION.
ALL OUTLOOKS WILL BE DISSEMINATED ON DIFAX THE SAME DAY...
Improvements in our understanding of the global climate system
and in delivery system technology have made improvements possible for
our climate outlook products. The scope and nature of the
improvements are so large that CAC has CEASED publication of the
Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook with the one issued November 29,
1994. Adjustments will be made on any unused portion of a
subscriber's service by the Superintendent of Documents. Also the
plain language narratives have been discontinued for the Monthly
Outlook (NWWS ID: NMC30NNA; FOS ID: FPUS6 KWBC) and Seasonal Outlook
(NWWS ID: NMC90NUS; FOS ID: FEUS9 KWBC). However, the prognostic
discussions will continue for the monthly outlook (PMD30D; FOS ID:
FXUS07 KWBC) and seasonal outlooks (PMD90D, FOS ID: FXUS05 KWBC).
All outlooks and related information will be officially
disseminated through the following: 1) FOS's Automation of Field
Operations and Services (AFOS) Graphics Service (for information,
contact the NWS Industrial Meteorology staff address in part one); 2)
the National Center for Environmental Prediction's Anonymous File
Transfer Protocol (for further information, contact CAC or RCC
addresses at the end of part 2); 3) Digital Facsimile (DIFAX) Service.
PLEASE NOTE: All outlooks WILL be transmitted on DIFAX the same
day, which is a change from the December 15 statement.
Also, CAC will disseminate outlooks experimentally on its home
page on Internet. The Internet address is http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov .
In addition, for a limited time, the Regional Climate Centers (RCC)
will distribute the outlooks by hard copy on request to users unable
to access the outlooks via electronic computer transmission or DIFAX.
The following is the schedule of issuances for 1995. Valid times
for seasonal outlooks are indicated by 3-letter abbreviations (e.g.
JFM = January-February-March; AMJ = April-May-June; etc.). Issue time
is around 3 p.m. eastern time.
Issuance Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec
Dates 17 16 16 13 18 15 13 17 14 19 16 14
. . . . . . . . . . . .
Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . .
(lead time). . . . . . . . . . . .
(0.5 mo.) Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan
(0.5 mo.) FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM
(1.5 mo.) MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA
(2.5 mo.) AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM
(3.5 mo.) MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ
(4.5 mo.) JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ
(5.5 mo.) JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA
(6.5 mo.) ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS
(7.5 mo.) SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO
(8.5 mo.) OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON
(9.5 mo.) NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND
(10.5 mo.) DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
(11.5 mo.) JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF
(12.5 mo.) FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM
The RCC's will serve as clearinghouses for information about the
Climate Outlooks. Each RCC and the states it covers is listed below:
AK HI WA OR CA ID UT MT NV AZ NM: ME NH VT MA CT NY NJ PA DE RI MD WV
Western Regional Climate Center Northeast Regional Climate Center
Director: Dr. Richard Reinhardt Director: Dr. Warren Knapp
NOAA Desert Research Center 1123 Bradfield Hall
P.O. Box 60220 Cornell University
Reno, NV 89506-0220 Ithaca, NY 14853
ph.702-677-3106; fax 702-677-3157 ph.607-255-5950; fax 607-255-2106
e-mail: rrwrcc@xxxxxxxxxxxx e-mail knapp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
TN MS AR LA OK TX: ND SD NE KS CO WY:
Southern Regional Climate Center High Plains Regional Climate Center
Director: Dr. Robert Muller Director: Dr. Kenneth Hubbard
245 Howe-Russell Complex L.W. Chase Hall
Louisiana State University University of Nebraska
Baton Rouge, LA 70803 Lincoln, NE 68583-0728
ph.504-388-5021; fax 504-388-2912 ph.402-472-6709; fax 402-472-6338
e-mail: e-mail: agme006@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
krobbins@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
OH KY IN IL MI WI IA MN MO: VA NC SC GA AL FL:
Midwest Regional Climate Center Southeast Regional Climate Center
Director: Dr. Kenneth Kunkel Director: David J. Smith
Illinois State Water Survey South Carolina Water Resources
2204 Griffith Drive 1201 Main Street, Suite 1100
Champaign, IL 61820-7495 Columbia, SC 29201
ph.217-244-8226; fax 217-244-0220 ph.803-737-0800; fax 803-765-9080
e-mail: k-kunkel@xxxxxxxx e-mail smith@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
You may also contact: CAC, Prediction Branch, W/NMC51,
5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD, 20746
A press conference will occur Jan. 18 at 10 a.m. CST in Dallas at the
American Meteorological Society meeting. For details, contact NWS
Public Affairs (Barry Reichenbaugh or Randee Exler) at 301-713-0622.
END OF PART 2 OF 2
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