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471 ABUS34 KTUL 181913 PNSTUL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 113 PM CST MON MAR 18 1994 ...ROUTINE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS BEGAN TODAY... THE DAILY ISSUANCE OF THE EAST OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK BEGAN TODAY. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE SENT AT 600 AM AND 100 PM EACH DAY THROUGH MID JUNE USING THE PRODUCT IDENTIFIER OKCSPSTUL. THE OUTLOOKS WILL COVER OKLAHOMA ZONES 54 THROUGH 77 AND ARKANSAS ZONES 1...2...10...11...19...AND 29. THE PURPOSE OF THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK IS TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE POSSIBILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE OUTLOOKS WILL BE VALID FROM THE ISSUANCE TIME THROUGH 600 AM CST OR 700 AM CDT THE NEXT MORNING. IN THE OUTLOOKS THE STORM POTENTIAL IS CATEGORIZED USING BOTH COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY DESCRIPTORS. THIS REPLACES THE RISK CATEGORY WHICH ATTEMPTED TO COMBINE BOTH THE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY INTO ONE TERM...AND WAS OFTEN MISINTERPRETED. COVERAGE TERMS USED WILL BE ISOLATED...A FEW AND NUMEROUS. PROBABILITY TERMS USED WILL BE EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE. FOR EXAMPLE...WHEN A FORECASTER BELIEVES THAT A NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR THE PHRASE...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL BE USED. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE BY A WIDE VARIETY OF PEOPLE...AND THEREFORE CONTAIN A SOMEWHAT DETAILED METEOROLOGICAL EXPLANATION OF THE SITUATION. TO HELP INTERPRET SOME OF THE INFORMATION...A GLOSSARY HAS BEEN PUT TOGETHER THAT DEFINES THE MORE COMMONLY USED TERMS. THIS GLOSSARY SHOULD BE SAVED AND REFERENCED AS NECESSARY. ...GLOSSARY OF TERMS USED IN THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS... CAP............A LAYER OF WARM AIR SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND THAT EFFECTIVELY KEEPS A LID ON UNSTABLE AIR AND PREVENTS THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. ON CERTAIN DAYS ALL CONDITIONS IMPORTANT TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE FAVORABLE ...BUT THE CAP PREVENTS STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT.....A TRANSITION ZONE THAT MARKS WHERE COLDER AIR IS MOVING INTO WARMER AIR. THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. CONVERGENCE....A WIND PATTERN THAT RESULTS IN AIR BEING FORCED INTO THE SAME GENERAL AREA. CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG FRONTS AND IS THE MECHANISM THAT PILES THE AIR UP AND FORCES IT TO RISE. DEW POINT......A MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR. IT IS THE TEMPERATURE TO WHICH THE AIR MUST COOL TO REACH A HUMIDITY OF 100 PERCENT. THE DEW POINT CAN EQUAL BUT NEVER BE MORE THAN THE TEMPERATURE. IN THE COOLER TIMES OF YEAR A GOOD RULE OF THUMB IS THAT THE DEW POINT AT THE GROUND SHOULD BE 55 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE WARMER TIMES OF YEAR A DEW POINT OF 65 DEGREES OR BETTER IS IMPORTANT. A DEW POINT GREATER THAN 60 IS HIGH IN THE WINTER AND A DEW POINT GREATER THAN 70 IS HIGH IN THE SUMMER. THE DEW POINT RARELY EXCEEDS 80 DEGREES IN OKLAHOMA. DIVERGENCE...A WIND PATTERN THAT RESULTS IN AIR BEING FORCED AWAY FROM THE SAM GENERAL AREA. DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE VENTILATES THE ATMOSPHERE LIKE A CHIMNEY AND HELPS LOW-LEVEL AIR TO RISE. DRY LINE.......A TRANSITION ZONE THAT MARKS THE DIVISION BETWEEN AIR OF HIGH HUMIDITY AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. BECAUSE DRY AIR IS MORE DENSE THAN HUMID AIR IT LIFTS THE HUMID AIR. THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ALONG A DRY LINE WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.........A REGION OF HIGHER BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WHERE THE AIR SPIRALS OUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH FAIR WEATHER. INSTABILITY....A MEASURE OF THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AIR ALOFT AND AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE COLDER THE AIR IS ALOFT AND THE WARMER IT IS NEAR THE GROUND...THE MORE UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY...THE GREATER THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN OCCUR EVEN ON COOL DAYS WHEN THE AIR ALOFT GETS VERY COLD. JET STREAM.....A STREAM OF FAST MOVING AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS STREAM OF AIR STEERS STORMS SYSTEMS ACROSS COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THE VICINITY OF A JET STREAM CAN ORGANIZE INTO LONG LIVED SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCERS. LOW PRESSURE CENTER.........A REGION OF LOWER BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WHERE THE AIR SPIRALS IN TOWARD THE CENTER IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FASHION. LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TYPICALLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BAD WEATHER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCES WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER...AND/OR HAIL 3/4 OF AN INCH OR LARGER IN DIAMETER. STATIONARY FRONT..........A COLD FRONT OR WARM FRONT THAT HAS STOPPED MOVING. THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ALONG STATIONARY FRONTS WHEN THE AIR IS UNSTABLE. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A ROTATING UPDRAFT. WHILE ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE A TORNADO... SUPERCELL STORMS CAN PRODUCE LARGE AND LONG LIVED TORNADOES. SQUALL LINE....A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...USUALLY FORMED ALONG A COLD FRONT OR DRY LINE. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.......THE RAIN COOLED AIR THAT FLOWS OUT OF A THUNDERSTORM CAN RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL SCALE COLD FRONT. NEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ON THE BOUNDARIES OF OLD STORMS. TORNADO........A RAPIDLY ROTATING COLUMN OF AIR IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. WIND SPEEDS IN A TORNADO CAN BE AS HIGH AS 300 MPH. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER BAROMETRIC PRESSURE. THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM NEAR THESE TROUGHS. UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE....A CENTER OR TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WARM FRONT.....A TRANSITION ZONE THAT MARKS WHERE WARMER AIR IS MOVING INTO COLDER AIR. THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ALONG A WARM FRONT WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WIND PROFILE........THE WAY THE WIND CHANGES WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE GROUND. A WEATHER PATTERN THAT RESULTS IN THE WIND SPEED INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGING IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION WITH HEIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS AND TORNADOES. WHILE TODAY MARKS THE RESUMPTION OF ROUTINE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS...THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ANYTIME DURING THE YEAR WHEN SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES ARE EXPECTED. ALSO...THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 130 PM WHEN THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOUR...OR WHEN HEIGHTENED AWARENESS IS DESIRED. BY USING THE OUTLOOKS IT IS HOPED THAT THE MEDIA...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SPOTTERS CAN MORE EFFECTIVELY PLAN THEIR ACTIVITIES AND BE READY WHEN SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
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