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NATIONAL TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION MESSAGE 98-19...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 1998
TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS...NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: LEROY SPAYD...CHIEF...SCIENCE AND TRAINING CORE
SUBJECT: CHANGES TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ANALYSIS/FORECAST
SYSTEM...EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 5 1998
...THIS IMPLEMENTATION WAS DELAYED FROM AN EARLIER PLANNED DATE
OF SEP 28 1998 DUE TO CRITICAL WEATHER DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE GEORGES...
BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z GLOBAL MODEL RUN ON OCT 5 1998...SEVERAL
CHANGES TO THE GLOBAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM WERE
IMPLEMENTED/BOTH AVN AND MRF RUNS/...THE T170L42 SYSTEM
IMPLEMENTED IN JUNE 1998 AND UPDATED IN JULY 1998 HAS NOT
PERFORMED AS EXPECTED AND LIMITED COMPUTER RESOURCES PRECLUDE
TESTING ANY POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS...HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL
RESOLUTIONS ARE REDUCED TO PRE-JUNE 1998 VALUES /T126 AND 28
LAYERS/...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ANALYSIS SYSTEM PRODUCE INITIAL DATA
FIELDS CLOSER TO OBSERVATIONS...CHANGES TO PHYSICAL
PARAMETERIZATIONS MADE IN JUNE/JULY 1998 ARE RETAINED /SEE TPB
449 AND THE CHANGES IN TPB450/...THE MRF FORECAST SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A T126L28 FORECAST TO 168 HOURS...AND T62L28
THEREAFTER...TESTING SHOWS MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS
AND CONSISTENT SUPERIORITY OVER THE OPERATIONAL MODEL USING
TRADITIONAL SCORING METHODS...ON-LINE DOCUMENTATION OF THE
CHANGES IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/TPBPR.HTM
/NUMBER 450/.../USE LOWER CASE FOR URL/...ROUTINE MONITORING OF
THE EFFECT OF THESE CHANGES WILL CONTINUE AND FUTURE MODEL
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE WHERE NECESSARY.
END
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