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391
NOUS41 KWBC 151453
PNSNMC
NATIONAL TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION MESSAGE 98-29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EST TUE DEC 15 1998
TO: FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS...NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM: DONALD R. WERNLY...CHIEF...CUSTOMER SERVICE
SUBJECT: CHANGES TO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUANCE
TIMES...EFFECTIVE 0000 UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME /UTC/
FEBRURAY 15 1999 /600 PM CST FEB 14 1999/
EFFECTIVE 0000 UTC FEBRUARY 15 1999 /600 PM CST FEB 14
1999/...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ WILL REVISE THE
ISSUANCE TIMES OF CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS. THIS ADJUSTMENT WILL
IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF THE OUTLOOKS BY ACCOUNTING FOR THE
AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL MODEL DATA. THE NEW
TIMES WERE BASED ON TWO PRIMARY CONSIDERATIONS:
1) THE OPTIMAL ISSUANCE TIMES TO ENSURE OUTLOOKS ARE OF
THE HIGHEST QUALITY... AND
2) TIMES THAT ARE ACCEPTABLE TO NWS FIELD OFFICES.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE NEW TIMES.
DAY 1 OUTLOOK PRODUCTS
/AFOS ID MKCSWODY1 - WMO HEADING ACUS1 KMKC/
NEW TIME CURRENT TIME
INITIAL 0600 UTC 0600 UTC
UPDATE 1 1300 UTC 1100 UTC /EXPERIMENTAL/
UPDATE 2 BY 1630 UTC 1500 UTC
UPDATE 3 BY 2000 UTC 1930 UTC
UPDATE 4 0100 UTC 0200 UTC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK PRODUCTS
/AFOS ID MKCSWODY2 - WMO HEADING ACUS2 KMKC/
NEW TIME CURRENT TIME
INITIAL 0830 UTC /STANDARD TIME/ 0800 UTC
0730 UTC /DAYLIGHT TIME/
UPDATE 1 1730 UTC 1800 UTC
EXPLANATION...
0600 UTC INITIAL DAY 1 - NO CHANGE. THE PRODUCT WILL STILL BE
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.
1300 UTC DAY 1 UPDATE -
BECAUSE OF THE FAVORABLE RESPONSE TO THIS /START OF BUSINESS/
OUTLOOK FROM THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY...WE ARE
CONVERTING THIS FROM AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT TO AN OFFICIAL
PRODUCT. HOWEVER...FOR IT TO CONTAIN MORE THAN COSMETIC CHANGES
TO THE INITIAL OUTLOOK...IT MUST BE SCHEDULED AFTER THE 1200 UTC
RAWINSONDE DATA IS AVAILABLE. BY MOVING THE OUTLOOK TO 1300
UTC...THE SPC FORECASTER WILL BE ABLE TO INCORPORATE THE 1200 UTC
RAWINSONDE DATA... INCREASING THE QUALITY OF THE OUTLOOK. NOT
ONLY WILL IT STILL BE AVAILABLE CLOSE TO THE START OF BUSINESS...
BUT ALSO IT WILL PROVIDE A NEW FORECAST FOR USE IN THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGES OF NWS OFFICES IN THE EASTERN U.S.
1630 UTC DAY 1 UPDATE -
THE 1630 UTC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOULD BE MORE ACCURATE AND PROVIDE
HIGHER RESOLUTION THAN THE CURRENT 1500 UTC PRODUCT...SINCE THE
SPC FORECASTER PREPARING THE OUTLOOK WILL BE ABLE TO EXAMINE THE
1200 UTC ETA MODEL BEFORE ISSUING THE PRODUCT. FORECASTERS IN
THE EASTERN TIME ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO USE THE 1630 UTC DAY 1
OUTLOOK WITH CONFIDENCE FOR THEIR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
2000 UTC DAY 1 UPDATE/ 1730 UTC DAY 2 UPDATE -
THE 1730 UTC DAY 2 OUTLOOK AND 2000 UTC DAY 1 OUTLOOK TIMES WERE
DETERMINED BY A NEED FOR FORECASTERS IN BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. TO HAVE A DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR THEIR AFTERNOON
FORECASTS...AND FOR THE SPC FORECASTER TO HAVE A REASONABLE AMOUNT
OF TIME BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON DAY 2 AND DAY 1 UPDATES.
PRESENTLY...THERE IS ONLY 90 MINUTES BETWEEN THEM. THIS SEVERELY
LIMITS THE FORECASTER/S ABILITY TO EXAMINE DIAGNOSTIC AND SHORT
TERM PROGNOSTIC DATA FOR THE DAY 1 UPDATE. BY ISSUING THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK 30 MINUTES EARLIER AND DELAYING THE DAY 1 BY 30
MINUTES...THE SPC FORECASTER WILL HAVE 2.5 HOURS TO PREPARE THE
UPDATED DAY 1 OUTLOOK. IF THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE BY
2000 UTC...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. FORECASTERS WILL BE ABLE TO
USE IT FOR THEIR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. TO ENSURE SUCH
TIMELINESS...A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED WELL BEFORE
2000 UTC IF THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK
/1630 UTC/...SUCH AS AN UPGRADE TO A HIGHER RISK CATEGORY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE LOCAL OFFICES ADDITIONAL TIME TO EVALUATE THE
FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
0100 UTC DAY 1 UPDATE -
THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE MOVED UP 1 HOUR TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR THE
EASTERN U.S. OFFICES EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE.
INITIAL DAY 2 -
ISSUANCE TIME WILL BE CHANGED TO 230 AM CENTRAL STANDARD/DAYLIGHT
TIME /0730 UTC DURING DAYLIGHT TIME AND 0830 UTC DURING STANDARD
TIME/. THIS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT WILL ALLOW THE SPC LEAD FORECASTER
TO COME IN AT MIDNIGHT DURING STANDARD TIME...INSTEAD OF 11 PM.
THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE SCHEDULES OF THE OTHER SPC
FORECASTERS AND WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMPREHENSIVE SPC SHIFT
CHANGE BRIEFINGS.
QUESTIONS...COMMENTS...OR SUGGESTIONS MAY BE FORWARDED TO
WILLIAM O. ALEXANDER JOSEPH SCHAEFER
OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY STORM PREDICTION CENTER
301-713-0090 EXT 115 JOSEPH.SCHAEFER/AT SYMBOL/NOAA.GOV
WILLIAM.ALEXANDER/AT SYMBOL/NOAA.GOV
...../USE LOWER CASE FOR E-MAIL/......
END
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