19991021: Model Assessment NCEP/HPC-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: 19991021: Model Assessment NCEP/HPC-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 13:12:50 -0600

606 
NOUS41 KWBC 211844
PNSNMC
  
PUBLIC INFO. STATEMENT...TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 99-16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999
  
ATTENTION:     ALL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ NATIONAL
                WEATHER WIRE SERVICES /NWWS/ FAMILY OF SERVICES
                /FOS/ OTHER NWS CUSTOMERS
  
FROM:          THERESE Z. PIERCE...CHIEF...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
                SERVICES
  
SUBJECT:       MODEL ASSESSMENT DISCUSSION FROM NCEP/HPC 
  
      IN RESPONSE TO NUMEROUS REQUESTS FROM FIELD FORECASTERS, THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER (HPC), PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE'S NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION,
WILL MAKE OPERATIONAL A TEXT PRODUCT CALLED THE MODEL ASSESSMENT
DISCUSSION BEGINNING DECEMBER 5, 1999.  THIS NARRATIVE WILL
PROVIDE FIELD FORECASTERS AND OTHER CUSTOMERS WITH INFORMATION
CONCERNING THE PAST AND EXPECTED NEAR TERM (48 HOUR) PERFORMANCE
OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS AVAILABLE TO NWS FORECASTERS.
  
      THE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AROUND 0530 AND
1730 UTC AND WILL INCLUDE AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOLLOWING:  THE
QUALITY OF THE INITIALIZATION OF THE NCEP MODELS (NGM, ETA, AND
AVN), KNOWN BIASES IMPACTING EACH MODEL, MODEL TRENDS,
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS, AND A DISCUSSION CONCERNING WHICH
MODEL FORECAST IS PREFERRED BY HPC FORECASTERS FOR DIFFERENT
GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS.  THE CONTENT OF THIS NARRATIVE WILL BE BASED
ON THE EXPERIENCE OF HPC FORECASTERS IN INTERPRETING MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE AVAILABLE MODEL ASSESSMENT TOOLS INCLUDING
RECENT VERIFICATION STATISTICS FOR EACH MODEL.  FORECASTER
EXPERIENCE CONCERNING KNOWN MODEL BIASES WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
COORDINATION BETWEEN THE HPC AND NCEP'S ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING
CENTER (EMC).  INFORMATION CONCERNING MODEL INITIALIZATION WILL
BE DERIVED FROM DATA COLLECTED BY THE NCEP SENIOR DUTY
METEOROLOGIST AND BY COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH OBSERVED
DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.
  
      THIS PRODUCT HAS BEEN PRODUCED ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS FOR
SEVERAL MONTHS AND DISTRIBUTED ON AFOS AND AWIPS AS PMDHMD AND
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THAT IDENTIFIER.  IT IS AVAILABLE AT THE HPC
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/PMDHMD.HTML
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT MR. DAVID REYNOLDS, CHIEF
OF HPC'S FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH AT 301-763-8000 EXT 7317 OR
DREYNOLDS@xxxxxxxxxxxxx, OR MR. EDWIN DANAHER, CHIEF OF HPC'S
DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING BRANCH AT 301-763-8000 EXT 7354 OR
EDANAHER@xxxxxxxxxxxxx. 
  
      THIS AND ALL OTHER PENDING NWS SERVICE CHANGE NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NWS OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY'S HOME PAGE IN THE
NOTIFICATION SECTION.  THE ADDRESS /IN LOWER CASE/ OF THE
NOTIFICATION SECTION IS: 
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
  
END


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