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NOUS41 KWBC 192005
PNSWSH
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-53
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
410 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
TO: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ EMPLOYEES...NOAAPORT
SUBSCRIBERS...FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...AND
OTHER NWS CUSTOMERS OF CLIMATE DATA
FROM: ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
SUBJECT: NEW PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS...
EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 17 2002
...NOTE: THIS CHANGE HAS NO IMPACT ON NOAA WEATHERWIRE SERVICE OR
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK SUBSCRIBERS...
EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 17 2002...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/
WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN ISSUING A SERIES OF PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE
/POE/ OUTLOOKS ONCE A MONTH ON NOAAPORT AND THE DOMESTIC DATA
SERVICE /DDS/ OF THE FAMILY OF SERVICE /FOS/...AROUND MID MONTH ON
A THURSDAY AT 300 PM EASTERN LOCAL TIME. CPC WILL ISSUE THE POE
OUTLOOKS CONCURRENTLY WITH THE THREE-MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOKS...UPON
WHICH THEY ARE DERIVED. CPC HAS BEEN ISSUING POE OUTLOOKS
EXPERIMENTALLY FOR SOME TIME ON THEIR WEB SITE AT THE URL ADDRESS
LISTED NEAR THE END OF THIS MESSAGE.
FOR GIVEN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE U.S...CPC WILL PROVIDE A SERIES OF
THREE-MONTH VALUES FOR GIVEN FORECAST ELEMENTS WITH VARIOUS POE
FROM 98 TO 2 PERCENT. THE FORECAST ELEMENTS USED IN POE OUTLOOKS
ARE MEAN TEMPERATURES...TOTAL PRECIPITATION... TOTAL HEATING DEGREE
DAYS /HDD/...AND TOTAL COOLING DEGREE DAYS /CDD/. THE LOCATIONS
FOR POE OUTLOOKS INCLUDE 102 AREAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK DIVISIONS AND A
NUMBER OF POINTS FOR SPECIFIC CITIES.
FOR EACH FORECAST ELEMENT AT EACH LOCATION...CPC WILL ISSUE
THIRTEEN SETS OF THREE-MONTH POE OUTLOOKS WITH LEAD TIMES FROM 0.5
MONTHS TO 12.5 MONTHS. FOR EXAMPLE...ON OCTOBER 17 2002...CPC WILL
ISSUE THREE-MONTH POE OUTLOOKS FOR EACH ELEMENT VALID FOR NOVEMBER
2002 THROUGH JANUARY 2003...DECEMBER 2002 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2003...
AND SO ON TO NOVEMBER 2003 THROUGH JANUARY 2004.
CPC WILL ISSUE TABULAR TEXT USING THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT IDS:
NOTE - THE LEAD TIME IS INDICATED BY THE LAST LETTER OF AWIPS ID.
I.E. A IS FOR 0.5 MONTH LEAD TIME...B IS FOR 1.5 MONTH LEAD TIME
ETC TO M FOR 12.5 MONTH LEAD TIME.
POE OUTLOOK PRODUCTS FOR ALL 102 CLIMATE DIVISIONAL AREAS
FOR WMO HEADINGS AWIPS IDS
TEMPERATURE FXUS/01 THROUGH 13/ KWNC POELT/A THROUGH M/
PRECIPITATION FXUS/61 THROUGH 73/ KWNC POELP/A THROUGH M/
HDD FXUS/28 THROUGH 40/ KWNC POELH/A THROUGH M/
CDD FXUS/41 THROUGH 53/ KWNC POELC/A THROUGH M/
POE OUTLOOK PRODUCTS FOR ALL SPECIFIED CITIES
FOR WMO HEADINGS AWIPS IDS
TEMPERATURE FXUS/01 THROUGH 13/ KWNC POECT/A THROUGH M/
HDD FXUS/28 THROUGH 40/ KWNC POECH/A THROUGH M/
CDD FXUS/41 THROUGH 53/ KWNC POECC/A THROUGH M/
NOTE: NO PRECIPITATION POE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE FOR CITIES
THE GENERIC FORMAT FOR THE VARIOUS PRODUCTS FOLLOWS. THERE ARE TWO
LINES FOR EACH CITY OR DIVISION. THE FIRST LINE CONTAINS THE AREA
OR CITY NUMBER AND NAME AND THE 50 PERCENT CLIMATOLOGICAL POE. THE
SECOND LINE CONTAINS THE ELEMENT VALUES WITH POE FROM 98 TO 2
PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE PROB. OF EXCEEDENCE OUTLOOKS - /DIVISIONS OR CITIES/
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM E-T THU MO. DAY 20--
VALID /THREE-MONTH PERIOD/
...TEMPERATURE IN FAHRENHEIT...
#. /DIVISION OR CITY/ NAME CLIM LINE1
98 95 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 2 LINE2
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1./NAME/ XX.X
XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X XX.X
2. ETC..
/DOUBLE DOLLAR SIGN/
- END OF GENERIC FORMAT -
------- DEGREE DAY PROB. OF EXCEEDENCE OUTLOOKS/DIVISIONS OR CITIES
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM E-T THU MO. DAY 20--
VALID /THREE-MONTH PERIOD/
...------- DEGREE DAYS IN FAHRENHEIT - 65F BASIS...
#. /DIVISION OR CITY NAME/ CLIM LINE1
98 95 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 2 LINE2
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1. /NAME/ XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
2. ETC..
/DOUBLE DOLLAR SIGN/
- END OF GENERIC FORMAT -
PRECIPITATION PROB. OF EXCEEDENCE OUTLOOKS - OUTLOOK DIVISIONS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM E-T THU MO. DAY 20--
VALID /THREE-MONTH PERIOD/
...INCHES TIMES 100...
#. /DIVISION NAME/ CLIM LINE1
98 95 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 2 LINE2
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1. /NAME/ XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
2. ETC..
/DOUBLE DOLLAR SIGN/
- END OF GENERIC FORMAT -
ADDITIONALLY...FOR THE 50 PERCENT /OR CENTER/ POE OUTLOOKS...CPC
WILL ISSUE OUTLOOK MAPS FOR THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AT THE FOLLOWING:
/LEAD TIMES ARE AGAIN INDICATED BY THE LAST LETTER IN THE AWIPS ID/
FOR WMO HEADINGS AWIPS IDS
TEMPERATURE PTNV/01 THROUGH 13/ KWNC RBGCT/A THROUGH M/
PRECIPITATION PENV/01 THROUGH 13/ KWNC RBGCP/A THROUGH M/
FOR THE 50 PERCENT OUTLOOK POE...CPC WILL PLOT SOLID CONTOURS OF POE
ANOMALY VALUES FROM THE 50 PERCENT CLIMATOLOGICAL POE. CPC USES A
CONTOUR INTERVAL IN TENTHS OF A DEGREE FAHRENHEIT /OR MULTIPLES OF/
AND TENTHS OF INCHES OF PRECIPITATION /OR MULTIPLES OF/. CPC WILL
ALSO PLOT CONTOURS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AMOUNTS FOR THE 50 PERCENT
CLIMATOLOGICAL POE USING INTERVALS OF 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT /OR
MULTIPLES OF/ AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION /OR MULTIPLES OF/.
THESE PRODUCTS AND ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND MATERIAL ARE AVAILABLE ON
THE CPC INTERNET WEB SITE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS/
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...CONTACT
DAVID UNGER
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - W/NP51
5200 AUTH RD.
CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
PHONE: 301-763-8000 EXT 7569
E-MAIL: DAVID.UNGER@xxxxxxxx
THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
$$
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