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432 NOUS41 KWBC 091715 PNSWSH PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 03-21 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC 120 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003 TO FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS... NOAAPORT SUBSBRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES FROM GLENN AUSTIN ACTING CHIEF...FIRE AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES BRANCH SUBJECT ADDITION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE...EFFECTIVE MAY 1 2003 ON THURSDAY MAY 1 2003...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ENHANCE ITS HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE. FORECASTS OF DAYTIME HIGH HEAT INDEX AND NIGHTTIME LOW HEAT INDEX WILL BE ADDED TO THE CURRENT DAILY MEAN HEAT INDEX FORECASTS SUITE. THERE WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE SUITE OF MEAN HEAT INDEX PRODUCTS /WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION /WMO/ HEADING: FMUS23 KWNH...AWIPS IDENTIFIER: PRBEHI AND FMUS24 KWNH...PRBWHI/ THAT WERE FIRST MADE AVAILABLE DURING THE SUMMER OF 2002...ANNOUNCED IN SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 02-25 AT THE WEBSITE LISTED AT THE END OF THIS MESSAGE. THE ADDITIONAL HIGH AND LOW HEAT INDEX FORECASTS WILL BE PROBABILISTIC IN NATURE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT MEAN HEAT INDEX FORECASTS. THE NEW GRAPHICS WILL DISPLAY THE MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM HEAT INDEX FORECAST FOR DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN. FOR EACH DAY... PROBABILITIES WILL BE ISSUED INDICATING THE CHANCE THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX WILL EXCEED 95...100...OR 105 DEGREES. FOR THE MINIMUM...HEAT INDEX PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 75...80...OR 85 WILL BE PROVIDED. SEE TABLE 1 FOR A LIST OF THESE PRODUCTS. THE TEXT PRODUCT WILL INCLUDE THE FORECAST MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM HEAT INDEX AS WELL AS THE DAILY AVERAGE HEAT INDEX FORECAST VALUE. IT WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE PROBABILITY OF THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 70...75...80... 85...90...95 AND 100 DEGREES FOR BOTH THE MINIMUM AND MEAN HEAT INDEX...BUT EXCEEDING 80...85...90... 95...100...105...AND 110 DEGREES FOR THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX. SEE TABLE 1. THE HEAT INDEX IS PREPARED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER /HPC/ IN CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND. IT IS CALCULATED FOR EACH SELECTED LOCATION BASED ON HPC FORECASTS. THEY ARE CONVERTED TO PROBABILISTIC VALUES BY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECASTS OVER AN ENSEMBLE OF MODEL FORECASTS AT A SPECIFIC LOCATION AND FORECAST DAY. THE MEAN HEAT INDEX IS INTENDED TO GIVE CUSTOMERS AN EARLY INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS. THE HEAT INDEX IS CALCULATED BY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE HUMIDITY AND IS A MORE ACCURATE INDICATOR OF DISCOMFORT THAN THE TEMPERATURE ALONE. STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT THE THRESHOLD FOR DANGER DUE TO HEAT RELATED STRESS IS AN AVERAGE DAILY HEAT INDEX OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX FORECAST TEXT BULLETIN IS PROVIDED IN TWO PARTS...EAST /E/ AND WEST /W/. IN ADDITION...HPC DISSEMINATES THESE PRODUCTS AND RELATED INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET. THE URL ADDRESS AVAILABLE MAY 1 IS AS FOLLOWS /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/. HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML TABLE 1. GRAPHICS PRODUCTS COVERING THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AND TEXT BULLETINS AT SELECTED CITY LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GRAPHICS DAY HI WMO HEADING AWIPS ID 3 95 PTNK98 KWNH RBG396 3 100 PTNK98 KWNH RBG300 3 105 PTNK98 KWNH RBG305 4 95 PTNM98 KWNH RBG496 4 100 PTNM98 KWNH RBG400 4 105 PTNM98 KWNH RBG405 5 95 PTNO98 KWNH RBG596 5 100 PTNO98 KWNH RBG500 5 105 PTNO98 KWNH RBG505 6 95 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG696 6 100 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG600 6 105 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG605 7 95 PTNS98 KWNH RBG796 7 100 PTNS98 KWNH RBG700 7 105 PTNS98 KWNH RBG705 MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX TEXT BULLETINS AREA WMO HEADING AWIPS ID EAST FMUS23 KWNH PRBEHH WEST FMUS24 KWNH PRBWHH MINIMUM HEAT INDEX GRAPHICS DAY MIN WMO HEADING AWIPS ID 3 75 PTNK98 KWNH RBG375 3 80 PTNK98 KWNH RBG380 3 85 PTNK98 KWNH RBG384 4 75 PTNM98 KWNH RBG475 4 80 PTNM98 KWNH RBG480 4 85 PTNM98 KWNH RBG484 5 75 PTNO98 KWNH RBG575 5 80 PTNO98 KWNH RBG580 5 85 PTNO98 KWNH RBG584 6 75 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG675 6 80 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG680 6 85 PTNQ98 KWNH RBG684 7 75 PTNS98 KWNH RBG775 7 80 PTNS98 KWNH RBG780 7 85 PTNS98 KWNH RBG784 MINIMUM HEAT INDEX TEXT BULLETINS AREA WMO HEADING AWIPS ID EAST FMUS23 KWNH PRBEHL WEST FMUS24 KWNH PRBWHL IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THE HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE... YOU CAN CONTACT KEVIN MCCARTHY...DEPUTY DIRECTOR NCEP HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND PHONE 301-763-8000 X7304 EMAIL KEVIN.MCCARTHY@xxxxxxxx -OR- ROBERT KELLY...CHIEF NCEP/HPC FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND PHONE 301-763-8000 X7306 EMAIL ROBERT.KELLY@xxxxxxxx THIS NOTICE AND OTHER NWS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING URL ADDRESS /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/. HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM $$ ---------- End Forwarded Message ----------
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