20030409: probabilistic heat indix-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)

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432
NOUS41 KWBC 091715
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 03-21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
120 PM EDT WED APR 9 2003

TO        FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
         WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS
         WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...
         NOAAPORT SUBSBRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM      GLENN AUSTIN
         ACTING CHIEF...FIRE AND PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT   ADDITION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PROBABILISTIC
         HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE...EFFECTIVE MAY 1 2003

ON THURSDAY MAY 1 2003...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL
ENHANCE ITS HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE.  FORECASTS OF DAYTIME HIGH
HEAT INDEX AND NIGHTTIME LOW HEAT INDEX WILL BE ADDED TO THE
CURRENT DAILY MEAN HEAT INDEX FORECASTS SUITE.  THERE WILL BE NO
CHANGES TO THE SUITE OF MEAN HEAT INDEX PRODUCTS /WORLD
METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION /WMO/ HEADING: FMUS23 KWNH...AWIPS
IDENTIFIER: PRBEHI AND FMUS24 KWNH...PRBWHI/ THAT WERE FIRST MADE
AVAILABLE DURING THE SUMMER OF 2002...ANNOUNCED IN SERVICE CHANGE
NOTICE 02-25 AT THE WEBSITE LISTED AT THE END OF THIS MESSAGE.

THE ADDITIONAL HIGH AND LOW HEAT INDEX FORECASTS WILL BE
PROBABILISTIC IN NATURE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT MEAN HEAT INDEX
FORECASTS.

THE NEW GRAPHICS WILL DISPLAY THE MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM HEAT INDEX
FORECAST FOR DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN.  FOR EACH DAY...
PROBABILITIES WILL BE ISSUED INDICATING THE CHANCE THE MAXIMUM
HEAT INDEX WILL EXCEED 95...100...OR 105 DEGREES.  FOR THE
MINIMUM...HEAT INDEX PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 75...80...OR 85
WILL BE PROVIDED.  SEE TABLE 1 FOR A LIST OF THESE PRODUCTS.

THE TEXT PRODUCT WILL INCLUDE THE FORECAST MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
HEAT INDEX AS WELL AS THE DAILY AVERAGE HEAT INDEX FORECAST
VALUE.  IT WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE PROBABILITY OF THE HEAT INDEX
EXCEEDING 70...75...80... 85...90...95 AND 100 DEGREES FOR BOTH
THE MINIMUM AND MEAN HEAT INDEX...BUT EXCEEDING 80...85...90...
95...100...105...AND 110 DEGREES FOR THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX. SEE
TABLE 1.

THE HEAT INDEX IS PREPARED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER /HPC/ IN CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND.  IT IS CALCULATED FOR EACH
SELECTED LOCATION BASED ON HPC FORECASTS.  THEY ARE CONVERTED TO
PROBABILISTIC VALUES BY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORECASTS OVER AN ENSEMBLE OF MODEL FORECASTS AT A SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND FORECAST DAY.

THE MEAN HEAT INDEX IS INTENDED TO GIVE CUSTOMERS AN EARLY
INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS.  THE HEAT
INDEX IS CALCULATED BY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE TEMPERATURE
AND THE HUMIDITY AND IS A MORE ACCURATE INDICATOR OF DISCOMFORT
THAN THE TEMPERATURE ALONE.  STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT THE
THRESHOLD FOR DANGER DUE TO HEAT RELATED STRESS IS AN AVERAGE
DAILY HEAT INDEX OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER.

THE PROBABILISTIC HEAT INDEX FORECAST TEXT BULLETIN IS PROVIDED
IN TWO PARTS...EAST /E/ AND WEST /W/.

IN ADDITION...HPC DISSEMINATES THESE PRODUCTS AND RELATED
INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET. THE URL ADDRESS AVAILABLE MAY 1 IS
AS FOLLOWS /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/.

         HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML

TABLE 1.  GRAPHICS PRODUCTS COVERING THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES AND TEXT BULLETINS AT SELECTED CITY LOCATIONS.

     MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GRAPHICS

     DAY  HI  WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID

     3    95   PTNK98 KWNH    RBG396
     3    100  PTNK98 KWNH    RBG300
     3    105  PTNK98 KWNH    RBG305
     4    95   PTNM98 KWNH    RBG496
     4    100  PTNM98 KWNH    RBG400
     4    105  PTNM98 KWNH    RBG405
     5    95   PTNO98 KWNH    RBG596
     5    100  PTNO98 KWNH    RBG500
     5    105  PTNO98 KWNH    RBG505
     6    95   PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG696
     6    100  PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG600
     6    105  PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG605
     7    95   PTNS98 KWNH    RBG796
     7    100  PTNS98 KWNH    RBG700
     7    105  PTNS98 KWNH    RBG705

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX TEXT BULLETINS

     AREA       WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID

     EAST       FMUS23 KWNH   PRBEHH
     WEST       FMUS24 KWNH   PRBWHH

MINIMUM HEAT INDEX GRAPHICS

     DAY  MIN   WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID
     3    75    PTNK98 KWNH    RBG375
     3    80    PTNK98 KWNH    RBG380
     3    85    PTNK98 KWNH    RBG384
     4    75    PTNM98 KWNH    RBG475
     4    80    PTNM98 KWNH    RBG480
     4    85    PTNM98 KWNH    RBG484
     5    75    PTNO98 KWNH    RBG575
     5    80    PTNO98 KWNH    RBG580
     5    85    PTNO98 KWNH    RBG584
     6    75    PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG675
     6    80    PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG680
     6    85    PTNQ98 KWNH    RBG684
     7    75    PTNS98 KWNH    RBG775
     7    80    PTNS98 KWNH    RBG780
     7    85    PTNS98 KWNH    RBG784

MINIMUM HEAT INDEX TEXT BULLETINS

     AREA       WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID

     EAST       FMUS23 KWNH    PRBEHL
     WEST       FMUS24 KWNH    PRBWHL


IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THE HEAT INDEX PRODUCT SUITE...
YOU CAN CONTACT

     KEVIN MCCARTHY...DEPUTY DIRECTOR
     NCEP HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
     CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND
     PHONE  301-763-8000 X7304
     EMAIL  KEVIN.MCCARTHY@xxxxxxxx

                  -OR-

     ROBERT KELLY...CHIEF
     NCEP/HPC FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH
     CAMP SPRINGS MARYLAND
     PHONE  301-763-8000 X7306
     EMAIL  ROBERT.KELLY@xxxxxxxx

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER NWS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE AT
THE FOLLOWING URL ADDRESS /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/.

         HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

$$


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