20030429: hurricane outlook-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: 20030429: hurricane outlook-ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC (fwd)
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Thu, 01 May 2003 08:30:03 -0600

NOUS41 KWBC 292045
PNSWSH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 03-28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
435 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

TO        FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
         WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS
         WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...
         NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         /NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM      ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
         CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION

SUBJECT   EXPERIMENTAL EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE OUTLOOK TO BE
         ISSUED JUNE 11 2003

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ WILL ISSUE THE EXPERIMENTAL
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE OUTLOOK /EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE/ ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 11 2003 AROUND 1000 A.M. EASTERN
DAYLIGHT TIME ON THE CPC WEB SITE AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/

    HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EPAC_HURR/INDEX.HTML

THE OUTLOOK IS VALID UNTIL NOVEMBER 30.  CPC WILL ISSUE THIS
EXPERIMENTAL OUTLOOK IN COOPERATION WITH THE NWS TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AND NOAA/S HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.

CPC WILL PROVIDE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ACTIVITY.  CPC USES
A DEFINITION OF OVERALL ACTIVITY REFLECTING A COMBINATION OF
FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES.  THESE MEASURES OF OVERALL ACTIVITY ARE A MUCH BETTER
INDICATOR THAN THE NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES ALONE.
CPC PROVIDES AN ACCOMPANYING PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION DETAILING THE
ATMOSPHERIC...OCEANIC...AND CLIMATIC CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE LEVEL
OF ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
AT THE URL ADDRESS ABOVE.

THIS OUTLOOK REPRESENTS OUR BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE EXPECTED OVERALL
LEVEL OF ACTIVITY FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN.  NO OUTLOOK CAN
GIVE CERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A PARTICULAR LOCALITY WILL BE
IMPACTED BY A HURRICANE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR.  RESIDENTS AND
GOVERNMENT AGENCIES OF COASTAL OR NEAR-COASTAL REGIONS SHOULD
ALWAYS MAINTAIN HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS EFFORTS...REGARDLESS OF THE
OVERALL OUTLOOK FOR A GIVEN YEAR.

FAR MORE DAMAGE CAN BE DONE BY ONE MAJOR HURRICANE HITTING A
HEAVILY POPULATED AREA THAN BY SEVERAL HURRICANES HITTING SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS OR...OF COURSE...NOT MAKING LANDFALL AT ALL.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HURRICANE-SPAWNED DISASTERS CAN OCCUR EVEN IN
YEARS WITH NORMAL /OR BELOW-NORMAL/ LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.

DURING THIS EXPERIMENTAL PHASE...PLEASE SEND WRITTEN COMMENTS/
SUGGESTIONS ON THIS PRODUCT TO

    BOB LEFFLER AND BARBARA MAYES
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/NOAA
    CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION W/OS4
    1325 EAST-WEST HIGHWAY
    SILVER SPRING MD 20910
    E-MAIL  ROBERT.LEFFLER@xxxxxxxx
     AND    BARBARA.MAYES@xxxxxxxx

ALL COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS WILL BE CAREFULLY CONSIDERED BEFORE
THE PRODUCT IS UPGRADED TO OFFICIAL STATUS IN THE FOLLOWING YEARS.

FOR TECHNICAL QUESTIONS...CONTACT

PRIMARY CONTACT
    MUTHUVEL CHELLIAH
    NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER W/NP52
    5200 AUTH RD
    CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746-4304
    PHONE  /301/ 763-8000 EXT 7546


BACKUP CONTACT
    GERALD D BELL
    NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER W/NP52
    5200 AUTH RD
    CAMP SPRINGS  MD 20746-4304
    PHONE  /301/ 763-8000 EXT 7536

THIS NOTICE AND OTHER SERVICE CHANGE NOTICES ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/

              HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM

$$


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