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NCEP Model Evaluation Subscribers,The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has proposed an upgrade to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). The model changes include: 1. Three of the four models used in the SREF (NMM, ARW and RSM) will be upgraded in model version (NMM and ARW from WRF V2.0 to WRF V2.2 and RSM from V2003 to V2008) and increased from 40/45 Km to 32/35Km in horizontal resolution. The upgrade and increased resolution significantly improve the performance of each individual member. For example; reducing the temperature bias for WRF members and adding more spatial detail. As a result, better behaved probabilities are also achieved by increasing forecast sharpness for the ensemble as a whole. 2. Increase of WRF membership (NMM from 3 to 5 and ARW from 3 to 5) and reduction of ETA membership from 10 to 6 (members N3, N4, P3 and P4 are removed) 3. More physics diversity by switching from Zhao Cloud Scheme to Ferrier Cloud Scheme in 3 out of 5 RSM members. 4. Forecast output, GRIB, frequency will increase from 3-hourly to hourly for the first 39 hours. 5. Four new aviation products will be added to ensemble products, mean and variability: Icing Clear Air Turbulence Ceiling Flight Restriction 6. Three new products will be added to the individual member output for some members: PBL Height, Richardson number = 0.25 Simulated composite reflectivity Echo Top, =18.3DBZ 7. Each SREF member BUFR output will be broken out into individual station time series. *Near real time parallel data:* Beginning Monday, September 28, 2009, a consistent parallel feed of data will be available at:
FTP: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/sref/paraHTTP: http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/ofs/para
We will make the model output available for 15 days starting Monday, 28September so that end-users of the SREF data can verify that no unforeseen changes have been introduced.
Any comments on this proposed change will be appreciated. Any feedback you wish to provide during the evaluation period should be emailed to NCEP.List.ModelEvalFeedback@xxxxxxxx prior to 16 October, 2009.The Environmental Modeling Center, EMC, has a publicly available website which can provide users with more information concerning the SREF: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mesoscale.html
Thanks Dan Starosta ------------------------------------------------------------------------ _______________________________________________ NCEP.List.ModelEvalInfo mailing list NCEP.List.ModelEvalInfo@xxxxxxxx https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.modelevalinfo --
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