[nws-changes] 20100205: GFS-MOS guidance equations amended: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC]

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-------- Original Message --------
653 NOUS41 KWBC 051514 
PNSWSH

TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 09-39...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010
TO: SUBSCRIBERS: -FAMILY OF SERVICES -NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE -EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK -NOAAPORT OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES 

FROM:     TIM MCCLUNG
         SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH CHIEF
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SUBJECT: AMENDED: CHANGES TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE EQUATIONS: POSTPONED TO MARCH 3 2010 

AMENDED TO POSTPONE EFFECTIVE DATE FOR UPDATING GFS MOS
EQUATIONS FROM FEBRUARY 9 2010 TO MARCH 3 2010
ON WEDNESDAY MARCH 3 2010...BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NWS METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY /MDL/ WILL UPDATE THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM /GFS/ -BASED MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS /MOS/ SYSTEM. THESE CHANGES WILL ALSO IMPACT THE GFS-BASED LOCALIZED AVIATION MOS PROGRAM /LAMP/ PRODUCTS BEGINNING WITH THE 1600 UTC RUN. 
THE GFS MOS CHANGES INCLUDE:
1. UPDATED EQUATIONS TO PRODUCE IMPROVED FORECAST GUIDANCE AT PROJECTIONS OF 1 TO 4 DAYS IN ADVANCE IN THE SHORT-RANGE PRODUCTS FROM THE 0000...0600...1200...AND 1800 UTC MODEL RUNS. THE CHANGES ARE FOR THE FOLLOWING ELEMENTS: 

DAYTIME MAXIMUM AND NIGHTTIME MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
2-METER TEMPERATURE
2-METER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE
WIND SPEED
WIND DIRECTION
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM /6 AND 12 HOUR/
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM /6 AND 12 HOUR/
CEILING HEIGHT CATEGORIES
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SNOW CONDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TYPE CATEGORIES 
CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT /24 HOUR/
2. UPDATED EQUATIONS TO PRODUCE FORECAST GUIDANCE AT PROJECTIONS OF 1 TO 7 DAYS IN ADVANCE IN THE EXTENDED-RANGE PRODUCTS FROM THE 0000 AND 1200 UTC MODEL RUNS. THE CHANGES ARE FOR THE FOLLOWING ELEMENTS: 

DAYTIME MAXIMUM AND NIGHTTIME MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
2-METER TEMPERATURE
2-METER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE
WIND SPEED
WIND DIRECTION
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM /12 AND 24 HOUR/
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING /12 HOUR/ 
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SNOW OCCURRING /12 HOUR/
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURRING /12 HOUR/
CONDITIONAL PRECIPITATON TYPE CATEGORIES /12 HOUR/
CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT /24 HOUR/
3. THE NWS WLL CHANGE THE IDENTIFIERS USED FOR THREE STATIONS IN THE GFS MOS AND LAMP PRODUCTS. BLAKELY GA WILL CHANGE FROM K11J TO KBIJ...WINNER WILEY FIELD SD WILL CHANGE FROM KSFD TO KICR...AND HUSLIA AK WILL CHANGE FROM PAHS TO PAHL.
4. NWS WILL REMOVE 19 STATIONS AND ADD 118 STATIONS TO THE SHORT- AND EXTENDED-RANGE STATION-BASED PUBLIC TEXT MESSAGES /KNOWN BY THEIR AWIPS IDS MAV AND MEX/ AND BUFR PRODUCTS. TEN MARINE STATIONS WILL BE REMOVED AND 171 MARINE STATIONS WILL BE ADDED TO THE GFS MOS MARINE TEXT PRODUCT /KNOWN BY THE AWIPS ID MMG/ AND BUFR PRODUCTS. THESE STATION CHANGES WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED EQUATIONS AS WELL AS THE EQUATIONS 
WHICH WERE NOT UPDATED FOR THE ELEMENTS BELOW:

-FORECASTS OF PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
-QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
-VISIBILITY
-OBSTRUCTION TO VISION
-OPAQUE SKY COVER. THE STATION REMOVALS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER TEXT PRODUCT /KNOWN BY THE AWIPS ID FTP/. THESE CHANGES WILL SLIGHTLY ALTER THE FORMAT OF THE MAV... MEX... AND MMG TEXT PRODUCTS BECAUSE NEW LINES WILL BE ADDED TO THE EXISTING BULLETINS TO ACCOMMODATE THE NEW STATIONS. FOUR LINES WILL BE ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC MEX MESSAGE WITH THE COMPLETION OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ELEMENTS. THE COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE TEXT AND BUFR PRODUCTS AFFECTED BY THIS 
CHANGE ARE SHOWN IN THE TABLES BELOW.
A WEB PAGE OUTLINING THE STATION CHANGES AND MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE UPDATES TO THE EQUATIONS IS ONLINE AT /USE LOWERCASE/: 

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/MDL/SYNOP/TIN/GFSMOS2009.PHP
BEGINNING AT 1600 UTC GFS-LAMP WILL REMOVE 18 STATIONS FROM THE PUBLIC TEXT /KNOWN BY ITS AWIPS ID AS LAV/ AND BUFR MESSAGES FOR ALL CYCLES. A FULL DESCRIPTION OF THIS LAMP CHANGE IS AVAILABLE AT /USE LOWERCASE/:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/MDL/GFSLAMP/DOCS/CHANGE_NOTICE_01222010.SHTML TABLE 1. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE GFS-BASED MOS PUBLIC WEATHER TEXT PRODUCTS.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID /SHORT RANGE/ /EXTENDED RANGE/ 

    FOPA20 KWNO    MAVPA0         FEPA20 KWNO    MEXPA0
    FOUS21 KWNO    MAVNE1         FEUS21 KWNO    MEXNE1
    FOUS22 KWNO    MAVSE1         FEUS22 KWNO    MEXSE1
    FOUS23 KWNO    MAVNC1         FEUS23 KWNO    MEXNC1
    FOUS24 KWNO    MAVSC1         FEUS24 KWNO    MEXSC1
    FOUS25 KWNO    MAVRM1         FEUS25 KWNO    MEXRM1
    FOUS26 KWNO    MAVWC0         FEUS26 KWNO    MEXWC0
FOAK37 KWNO MAVAJK FEAK37 KWNO MEXAJK FOAK38 KWNO MAVAFC FEAK38 KWNO MEXAFC FOAK39 KWNO MAVAFG FEAK39 KWNO MEXAFG
TABLE 2. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE GFS-BASED MOS MARINE TEXT PRODUCTS. 

    WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID
FQPA20 KWNO MMGHI1 
    FQUS21 KWNO    MMGNE1
    FQUS22 KWNO    MMGSE1
    FQUS23 KWNO    MMGGL1
    FQUS24 KWNO    MMGGF1
    FQUS25 KWNO    MMGNW1
    FQUS26 KWNO    MMGSW1
    FQAK37 KWNO    MMGAK1
TABLE 3. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE GFS-BASED MOS RIVER FORECAST CENTER TEXT PRODUCTS. 

    WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID
FOUS12 KWNO FTPCIN 
    FOUS12 KWNO    FTPHFD
    FOUS12 KWNO    FTPKRF
    FOUS12 KWNO    FTPMSR
FOUS12 KWNO FTPPTR FOUS12 KWNO FTPRHA FOUS12 KWNO FTPRSA FOUS12 KWNO FTPSLR FOUS12 KWNO FTPTUR 
    FOAK12 KWNO    FTPACR
TABLE 4. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE GFS-BASED MOS BUFR PRODUCTS. 

    WMO HEADING    WMO HEADING       REGION
/SHORT RANGE/ /EXTENDED RANGE/ 
    JSML30 KWNO    JSMT30 KWNO       PACIFIC REGION
    JSML31 KWNO    JSMT31 KWNO       NORTHEAST CONUS
    JSML32 KWNO    JSMT32 KWNO       SOUTHEAST CONUS
    JSML33 KWNO    JSMT33 KWNO       NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
    JSML34 KWNO    JSMT34 KWNO       SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
    JSML35 KWNO    JSMT35 KWNO       ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
    JSML36 KWNO    JSMT36 KWNO       WEST COAST CONUS
    JSML37 KWNO    JSMT37 KWNO       ALASKA
TABLE 5. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE AFFECTED AIR FORCE MOS TEXT PRODUCTS. 

    WMO HEADING    AWIPS ID       STATION REMOVED
/SHORT RANGE/ 
    FOUS30 KWNO    MAVF02         KPLB
    FOUS30 KWNO    MAVF14         KNQX
    FOUS30 KWNO    MAVF25         KMCC
/EXTENDED RANGE/ 
    FEUS30 KWNO    MEXF02         KPLB
    FEUS30 KWNO    MEXF14         KNQX
    FEUS30 KWNO    MEXF25         KMCC
TABLE 6. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE GFS-LAMP TEXT PRODUCT AFFECTED BY THE REMOVAL OF STATIONS.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID FOUS11 KWNO LAVUSA TABLE 7. COMMUNICATION IDENTIFIERS FOR THE GFS-LAMP BUFR PRODUCTS AFFECTED BY THE REMOVAL OF STATIONS. 

    WMO HEADING    REGION
    JSMF10 KWNO    PACIFIC REGION
    JSMF11 KWNO    NORTHEAST CONUS
    JSMF12 KWNO    SOUTHEAST CONUS
    JSMF13 KWNO    NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
    JSMF14 KWNO    SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
    JSMF15 KWNO    ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
    JSMF16 KWNO    WEST COAST CONUS
    JSMF17 KWNO    ALASKA

FOR QUESTIONS REGARDING GFS MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...  CONTACT:

    KATHRYN GILBERT
    MDL/SILVER SPRING MARYLAND
    301-713-0023 EXT 130
KATHRYN.GILBERT@xxxxxxxx 
FOR QUESTIONS REGARDING GFS LAMP GUIDANCE PRODUCTS... CONTACT:

    JUDY GHIRARDELLI
    MDL/SILVER SPRING MARYLAND
    PHONE: 301-713-0056 EXT 194
JUDY.GHIRARDELLI@xxxxxxxx LINKS TO THE MOS PRODUCTS...ALONG WITH DESCRIPTIONS...CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWERCASE/: 

    HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/MDL/SYNOP
NWS NATIONAL TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE ONLINE AT /USE LOWERCASE/: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/NOTIF.HTM $$ NNNN
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