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-------- Original Message --------
137
NOUS41 KWBC 291538
PNSWSH
Technical Implementation Notice 12-06
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1048 AM Wed EST Feb 29, 2012
To: Subscribers:
Family of Services
NOAA Weather Wire Service
Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
NOAAPort
Other NWS partners and employees
From: Cynthia Abelman
Chief, Aviation Services Branch
Subject: Extended Convective Forecast Product
Operational
Effective Monday, April 16, 2012, at 1800 Coordinated Universal
Time (UTC), the NWS Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, MO,
will implement the Extended Convective Forecast Product (ECFP)
as an operational product. On that date, ECFP will be available
24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
The ECFP Planning Tool is a graphic showing the forecast
probability of thunderstorms. The product identifies where in
the United States thunderstorms are likely to occur in 6-hour
time blocks through 72 hours (Day 3) based on the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Short Range Ensemble
Forecast (SREF).
This automated graphical forecast is created from the SREF
Calibrated Thunderstorm output. Contours are drawn at 40
percent, 60 percent, and 80 percent probability of thunderstorm
using CCFP-like shading. Hashed areas represent 40-59 percent
probability, solid lined areas represent 60-79 percent
probability, and solid blue filled areas represent greater than
80 percent probability.
NWS developed the ECFP planning tool in response to Federal
Aviation Administration needs to plan for weather hazards,
specifically convection, 1-2 days in advance. To meet these
planning needs, and to support CCFP planning beyond 6 hours, the
ECFP is intended to provide traffic planners and collaborators a
quick-look forecast of the greatest probability of
convection/thunderstorms. By using CCFP-style graphics, users
familiar with CCFP can easily determine where traffic
constraints are most likely beyond the normal CCFP valid times,
including overnight hours, and through Days 2 and 3.
The experimental ECFP can be accessed at
http://www.aviationweather.gov/testbed/ccfpoutlook/
On April 16, the operational product will be online at:
http://www.aviationweather.gov/products/ccfp/ecfp
If you have any questions or comments about this change, or the
ECFP service, please contact:
Michael Pat Murphy
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Aviation Weather Center
Kansas City, MO 64153
816-584-7239
michael.pat.murphy@xxxxxxxx
National Technical Implementation Notices are online at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm
$$
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