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-------- Original Message --------
419
NOUS41 KWBC 031138
PNSWSH
Technical Implementation Notice 12-25
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
738 AM EDT Thu May 3 2012
To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
-Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees
From: Tim McClung
Science Plans Branch Chief
Office of Science and Technology
Subject: Update to GFS-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) Wind
Guidance and resulting changes to LAMP wind guidance on
or about June 5, 2012.
On or about Tuesday, June 5, 2012, with the 1200 Coordinated
Universal Time (UTC) model cycle, the NWS Meteorological
Development Laboratory will implement new Global Forecast System
(GFS)-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) wind speed and
direction guidance for sites available in the short-range (MAV)
and extended-range (MEX) text bulletins. These new equations
correct bias changes in the GFS model upgrade implemented
May 10, 2011
www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-07gfs_update_aaa.htm
These changes also will impact the GFS-based Localized Aviation
MOS Program (LAMP) beginning with the 1600 UTC Run.
Geographic expanses of certain vegetation types in the southern
and western United States correspond to areas where degradation
in the MOS wind guidance was most evident, particularly in the
warm season. Wind equations are being replaced for most stations
over the CONUS. The GFS model upgrade has shown little impact on
MOS guidance over ocean water so the current set of equations for
all marine stations will remain in place. Guidance for stations
in Alaska and neighboring Canadian sites also are not being
replaced at this time because verification of the new equations
shows a slight degradation in skill.
Three METAR sites in the West no longer report or do not contain
a sufficient number of wind observations from which to develop
new equations and forecasts produced from the old equations and
are significantly degraded. Guidance for wind direction and speed
are now be missing for the following three sites for all cycles
and projections in the MAV and MEX bulletins:
K4BM Wilkerson Pass, CO
KBJN Tonopah Range 74 Nellis AFB, NV
KTDO Toledo-Winlock Memorial, WA
As a result of the GFS MOS change above, LAMP guidance for wind
direction, speed, and gusts will now be missing for the following
site for all cycles and projections in the LAMP LAV bulletins and
BUFR messages:
KTDO Toledo-Winlock Memorial, WA
In addition, guidance for wind direction and speed has been added
for the following two Air Force sites for all cycles and
projections in the Air Force MAV and MEX bulletins:
KBYS Bicycle Lake Army Airfield, CA
KL35 Big Bear City Airport, CA
These changes will slightly alter the format of the MAV and MEX
text products because lines for wind direction and speed will be
added or removed for the 5 sites listed above. These changes
will slightly alter the format of the LAV text products because
lines for wind direction, speed, and gusts will be removed for
the 1 site listed above. The tables below list the communication
identifiers for all products affected by these changes.
A temporary Website has been made available until the new
equations are implemented so users may compare the current
operational GFS MOS wind speed with the improved GFS MOS wind
speed guidance. The comparison page can be found at:
http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_wind/
Table 1: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS public
text products affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
-------------------- ----------------------
FOPA20 KWNO MAVPA0 FEPA20 KWNO MEXPA0
FOUS21 KWNO MAVNE1 FEUS21 KWNO MEXNE1
FOUS22 KWNO MAVSE1 FEUS22 KWNO MEXSE1
FOUS23 KWNO MAVNC1 FEUS23 KWNO MEXNC1
FOUS24 KWNO MAVSC1 FEUS24 KWNO MEXSC1
FOUS25 KWNO MAVRM1 FEUS25 KWNO MEXRM1
FOUS26 KWNO MAVWC0 FEUS26 KWNO MEXWC0
Table 2: Communication identifiers for the affected Air Force MOS
text products.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
--------------------- ----------------------
FOUS30 KWNO MAVF26 FEUS30 KWNO MEXF26
Table 3. Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS BUFR
products affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING WMO HEADING REGION
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
------------ ----------- ------------------
JSML30 KWNO JSMT30 KWNO PACIFIC REGION
JSML31 KWNO JSMT31 KWNO NORTHEAST CONUS
JSML32 KWNO JSMT32 KWNO SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSML33 KWNO JSMT33 KWNO NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML34 KWNO JSMT34 KWNO SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML35 KWNO JSMT35 KWNO ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSML36 KWNO JSMT36 KWNO WEST COAST CONUS
Table 4: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP public
text product affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FOUS11 KWNO LAVUSA
Table 5: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP BUFR
products affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING REGION
------------ ---------------
JSMF10 KWNO PACIFIC REGION
JSMF11 KWNO NORTHEAST CONUS
JSMF12 KWNO SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSMF13 KWNO NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF14 KWNO SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF15 KWNO ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSMF16 KWNO WEST COAST CONUS
For questions regarding the update to the GFS MOS wind guidance
and resulting changes to the MAV and MEX bulletins please
contact:
Kathryn Gilbert
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-713-0023, Ext. 130
Kathryn.Gilbert@xxxxxxxx
For questions regarding the changes to LAMP guidance please
contact:
Judy Ghirardelli
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-713-0056, Ext. 194
Judy.Ghirardelli@xxxxxxxx
Links to the MOS products and descriptions are online at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop
NWS national TINs are online at:
http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm
$$
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