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-------- Original Message -------- Hi All, Effective with today's 12Z run of the GFS, NCO has implemented a correction to the GFS 2m temperatures and sfc moisture. EMC was notified that the GFS forecasts were too cold and too moist in recent months. Investigation by EMC developers found the problem was introduced by erroneous land-surface model tables introduced during the last major GFS upgrade. The correction removed the warm-season cold temperature bias and high moisture bias, and significantly improved GFS precip forecast skills over the CONUS, especially for light rain. The change has no significant impact on other forecast skill metrics such as 500 mb height anomaly correlation, hurricane track and intensity, or cool-season forecast metrics. GFS MOS temperature and dew point guidance are improved due to the corrections in the GFS. Further details may be found in TIN 12-42, at www.nws.noaa.go/os/notification/tin12-42land_surface_model.htm Thanks, Chris Christine Caruso Magee Team Lead, Production Control NWS/NCEP/NCO/Production Management Branch 301-683-3905 chris.caruso.magee@xxxxxxxx _______________________________________________
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