[nws-changes] 20130912: GFS MOS Fwd: ADMIN NOTICE NOUS41 KWBC

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-------- Original Message --------

101
NOUS41 KWBC 121103
PNSWSH

Technical Implementation Notice 13-30
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
705 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2013

To:       Subscribers:
          -Family of Services
          -NOAA Weather Wire Service
          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
          -NOAAPORT
          Other NWS Partners and Employees

From:     Tim McClung
          Science Plans Branch Chief
          Office of Science and Technology

Subject:  Update to GFS-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) Wind
          Guidance and Resulting Changes to LAMP Wind Guidance
          on or about October 22, 2013

On or about Tuesday, October 22, 2013, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model cycle, the NWS
Meteorological Development Laboratory will implement new Global
Forecast System (GFS)-based Model Output Statistics (MOS) wind
speed and direction guidance for sites available in the short-
range (MAV) and extended-range (MEX) text bulletins. These new
equations correct bias changes in the GFS model upgrade
implemented May 10, 2011.

www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-07gfs_update_aaa.htm

Wind equations for the warm season (valid April 1 through
September 30) were updated on June 12, 2012.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin12-25gfs_mos-aaa.htm

These changes also will impact the GFS-based Localized Aviation
MOS Program (LAMP) beginning with the 1600 UTC cycle.

NWS is replacing cool season wind equations for the majority of
stations over CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Canada.

Three METAR sites in the West no longer report or do not contain
a sufficient number of wind observations from which to develop
new equations. Forecasts produced from the old equations are
significantly degraded. Guidance for wind direction and speed
are now missing for the following three sites for all cycles and
projections in the GFS MOS bulletins:

     K3A6      Newhall, CA
     KTDO      Toledo-Winlock Memorial, WA
     KVTP      La Veta Mountain, CO

These changes will slightly alter the format of the GFS MOS text
products because lines for wind direction and speed will be
removed for the three sites listed above. As a result of the GFS
MOS change above, LAMP guidance for wind direction, speed, and
gusts will now be missing for those three sites for all cycles
and projections in the LAMP LAV bulletins and BUFR messages.

In addition, guidance for wind direction and speed has been
added for the following four Air Force sites for all cycles and
projections in the Air Force MAV and MEX bulletins:

     K2DP      Dare County Gunnery Range, NC
     KBIF      Biggs Army Airfield, TX
     KBYS      Bicycle Lake Army Airfield, CA
     KL35      Big Bear City Airport, CA

These changes will slightly alter the format of the Air Force
MAV and MEX text products because lines for wind direction and
speed will be added for these four sites.

The tables below list the communication identifiers for all
products affected by these changes.

Table 1: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS public
text products affected by the changes.

     WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID   WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID
         (SHORT RANGE)           (EXTENDED RANGE)
     --------------------     ----------------------
     FOPA20 KWNO   MAVPA0     FEPA20 KWNO   MEXPA0
     FOUS21 KWNO   MAVNE1     FEUS21 KWNO   MEXNE1
     FOUS22 KWNO   MAVSE1     FEUS22 KWNO   MEXSE1
     FOUS23 KWNO   MAVNC1     FEUS23 KWNO   MEXNC1
     FOUS24 KWNO   MAVSC1     FEUS24 KWNO   MEXSC1
     FOUS25 KWNO   MAVRM1     FEUS25 KWNO   MEXRM1
     FOUS26 KWNO   MAVWC0     FEUS26 KWNO   MEXWC0

Table 2: Communication identifiers for the affected Air Force
MOS text products
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
         (SHORT RANGE)           (EXTENDED RANGE)
     ---------------------    ----------------------
     FOUS30 KWNO   MAVF26     FEUS30 KWNO   MEXF26

Table 3: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS BUFR
products affected by the changes

     WMO HEADING   WMO HEADING   REGION
    (SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
     ------------   -----------  ------------------
    JSML30 KWNO   JSMT30 KWNO   PACIFIC REGION
    JSML31 KWNO   JSMT31 KWNO   NORTHEAST CONUS
    JSML32 KWNO   JSMT32 KWNO   SOUTHEAST CONUS
    JSML33 KWNO   JSMT33 KWNO   NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
    JSML34 KWNO   JSMT34 KWNO   SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
    JSML35 KWNO   JSMT35 KWNO   ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
    JSML36 KWNO   JSMT36 KWNO   WEST COAST CONUS
Table 4: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP public
text product affected by the changes

     WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID
     -----------   --------
     FOUS11 KWNO   LAVUSA

Table 5: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP BUFR
products affected by the changes

     WMO HEADING   REGION
     ------------  ---------------
    JSMF10 KWNO   PACIFIC REGION
    JSMF11 KWNO   NORTHEAST CONUS
    JSMF12 KWNO   SOUTHEAST CONUS
    JSMF13 KWNO   NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
    JSMF14 KWNO   SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
    JSMF15 KWNO   ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
    JSMF16 KWNO   WEST COAST CONUS
For questions regarding the update to the GFS MOS wind guidance
and resulting changes to the MAV and MEX bulletins contact:

  Eric Engle
  MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
  301-713-0023, Ext. 146
  Eric.Engle@xxxxxxxx

For questions regarding the changes to LAMP guidance, contact:

  Judy Ghirardelli
  MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
  301-713-0056, Ext. 194
  Judy.Ghirardelli@xxxxxxxx

Links to the MOS products and descriptions are online at:

  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop

NWS National Technical Implementation Notices are online at:
http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm

$$





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